INSTANT VIEW 3-Czech Sept trade surplus smaller than fcast

                                
 PRAGUE, Nov 5 (Reuters) - The Czech foreign trade balance
posted a narrower-than-expected 10.9 billion crown ($582.3
million) surplus in September, data showed on Wednesday.
**************************************************************
KEY POINTS:
(in bln CZK)           Sept         Aug          Sept fcast
 balance               10.88        3.59         14.0
(nominal y/y change in pct)
 exports               5.1         -8.1           n/a
 imports               6.8        -10.1           n/a

 (For full table of trade data, click on........[nPRA002203])

- According to seasonally-adjusted preliminary data, exports
rose 1.8 percent in September from August, while imports rose
9.8 percent month-on-month.
- In euro terms, exports and imports grew 18.3 percent and 20.3
percent year-on-year in September, outpacing the dynamics in
crowns, thanks to the firming of the domestic currency.
- Export in trade with vehicles and machinery rose by 0.4
percent year-on-year.
-Imports outpaced exports for the first time since February
2008. 
- The Czech crown weakened by 0.4 percent to 24.200 per euro
following the release of the data.
                                
 
                                
 COMMENTARY
                                
 RADOMIR JAC, CHIEF ANALYST, GENERALI PFF ASSET MANAGEMENT
                                
 "What is surprising is that exports really grew slower than
imports."
                                
 "The data show that foreign demand is slowing."
                                
 "For several months there have been indications that for
example new industrial orders are weakening. PMI indicators for
the Czech Republic show that export orders weaken and I would
say that this number is in line with these trends."
                                
 
                                
 JAN VEJMELEK, HEAD OF ECONOMIC AND STRATEGY RESEARCH,
KOMERCNI BANKA
                                
 "The figure was below market expectations and our forecast.
It might be a start of some reversal trend in foreign trade
because in September it was the first time in a long time that
you can see year-on-year deterioration in the foreign trade
balance."
                                
 "This figure is some negative signal for GDP in the third
quarter. So overall I would say it is a negative surprise for
the market."
                                
 
                                
 DAVID MAREK, CHIEF ECNOMIST, PATRIA FINANCE       
                                
 "The data as a whole is moderately negative... The foreign
trade surplus is gradually shrinking."
                                
 "All data coming from western Europe lately show that the
euro zone will not escape a recession and it is beginning to
show also in the dynamics of Czech exports to the euro zone."
                                
 "On the other hand, falling commodity prices, which shrink
the value of imports, are a moderate relief."
                                
 "I do not think there is a reason to change the assumption
that the central bank will cut rates this week by a quarter of a
percentage point."
                                
 
                                
 BACKGROUND:
- Market expectations before release              [ID:nL3691707]
- Slovak August trade figures                      [ID:nLA70218]
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision       [ID:nLP705205]
                                
                              [ID:nPRG001022] [ID:nPRA002139]

- For further details on September foreign trade and other past
data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical
Bureau's website:
                                
 http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-vzo

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 (Reporting by Jana Mlcochova)