* U.S. crude stocks to rise for second week - poll
* UK Q4 GDP data shrinks unexpectedly
* Coming up: Reuters' oil price poll forecasts at 1100 GMT
* Coming up: API weekly crude stocks at 2130 GMT
(Updates prices, quotes, previous SINGAPORE)
By Zaida Espana
LONDON, Jan 25 (Reuters) - U.S. crude prices fell for a
second consecutive day on Tuesday, ahead of an expected build-up
in inventories data from the world's largest consumer the United
States, while a surprise 0.5 percent contraction in UK GDP
fanned concerns about the global recovery.
U.S. crude oil inventories rose last week as imports
increased and refinery utilisation was little changed after
dropping sharply the week before, a Reuters poll of analysts
ahead of weekly inventory reports showed. []
"We had a premium built into bad weather and the Alaskan
pipeline leak," said Jonathan Barratt, managing director at
Commodity Broking Services.
"The market thought it was demand, which it wasn't."
By 1022 GMT, U.S. crude oil for March delivery <CLc1> was 61
cents lower at $87.26 a barrel, while ICE Brent crude for March
<LCOc1> fell 80 cents to $95.81 a barrel. []
UK GDP data showed a shock 0.5 percent contraction in the
last three months of 2010, sending the FTSE 100 index of
bluechip shares lower. []
"This is a stunningly bad outcome: it is a performance far
worse than even the most pessimistic of forecasts," Howard
Archer from IHS Global Insight said.
The news came ahead of the Federal Reserve's two-day Federal
Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Tuesday. []
U.S. January consumer confidence data due at 1500 GMT will
also provide focus, with economists in a Reuters survey
forecasting a reading of 54.3 compared with 52.5 in December.
Brent's premium over U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate
(WTI) <CL-LCO1=R>, came in from yesterday's intraday record at
$9.76 a barrel to $8.68 by the same time.
"The WTI forward curve has steepened further at the front
end because the front-month futures contract has come under
greater pressure than the contracts thereafter," Commerzbank
analysts said in a note.
"The background here is the expectation of an inventory
build in the U.S., which in turn will gain additional support
from the contango shape of the forward curve."
Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note that cyclical
commodities like oil and copper have now outperformed gold for
the first time since the summer of 2009, joining the rally in
agricultural commodities even as gold prices faltered.
According to the analysts, the move highlights substantial
changes in the global financial landscape in recent months as
the U.S. economic recovery has shifted on to a much more solid
footing.
"This shift is central to our view for 2011, as we expect
cyclical commodities to enter a bull market, augmenting the bull
market in agricultural commodities that began in 2010," GS
analysts wrote in a research note.
INVENTORIES EYED
U.S. oil inventories were still above long-term averages
while the northern hemisphere has passed the peak of cold
weather, Barratt said.
Crude oil and gasoline stocks are expected to rise by
900,000 barrels and 2.2 million barrels, respectively, in the
week to Jan. 21, a Reuters poll showed. Distillate stocks are
seen down by 200,000 barrels last week.
On the technical front, a fall in the previous session
extended a medium-term downtrend for U.S. oil prices, Reuters
technical analyst Wang Tao said.
Tao added that Brent's premium to WTI is on a firm uptrend
and is expected to reach $11.29 per barrel in two weeks, after a
minor drop to $8.00.
For a graphic on the Brent-WTI technical analysis, click:
http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/WT/20112501102706.jpg
(Additional reporting by Florence Tan in Singapore; Editing
by Jason Neely)
