* Oil rises after slide to 13-month low
* Governments around world act to shore up banks
* Goldman Sachs slashes oil forecast, turns near-term bear
* Saudi cuts November oil shipments to Europe
(Updates prices)
By Jane Merriman
LONDON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Oil held above $81 a barrel on
Monday after governments around the world acted to shore up
confidence in the global banking system, spurring a rally across
commodities and stock markets.
But investment bank Goldman Sachs said the financial crisis
had already done more damage than it expected to commodity
demand and warned that a slide to $50 a barrel for oil could be
possible. []
U.S crude <CLc1> for November delivery was up $3.42 at
$81 12 a barrel by 1502 GMT, below a session high of $82.52.
Prices had plunged on Friday to their lowest since Sept. 10,
2007.
London Brent crude <LCOc1> was up $2.87 at $76.96 a barrel.
"The announcements from over the weekend would have some
positive effects on the markets, even though it's still in very
early days at this stage to say if they would put an end to the
financial crisis," said David Moore, a commodities analyst at
the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
Goldman Sachs, a longstanding commodity bull, turned a
near-term bear on Monday after conceding that global financial
turmoil would take a far bigger toll on demand. It warned that
$50 oil was possible if the crisis deepened.
"We have underestimated the depth and duration of the global
financial crisis and its implications on economic growth and
commodity demand," its commodity markets research team said.
The bank cut its year-end U.S. crude oil target to $70 a
barrel, down from a previous forecast of $115 a barrel, and
slashed its average 2009 forecast by a third to $86 a barrel.
A fall in demand in the United States and other developed
economies has helped drive oil down nearly 50 percent from its
July peak above $147 a barrel.
A boom in consumption from emerging markets such as China
had contributed to a six-year rally in commodity prices.
OPEC ACTION
Oil's fall has caused some members of the Organization of
the Petroleum Exporting Countries to call for a cut in
production levels.
"We expect the organisation to be more vigilant in keeping
to quotas now that prices have slipped below $90 a barrel and to
vigorously defend $80," Standard Chartered Bank said in a
research note.
The producer group has agreed to hold an emergency meeting
in Vienna on Nov. 18 to discuss the impact of the global
financial crisis on the oil market.
"Poor demand and low refining margins should already
translate into a lower call on OPEC crude oil," said Olivier
Jakob of consultancy Petromatrix.
Jakob said the market was starting to price in an OPEC cut,
with the only uncertainty being on the size of the cut.
Iran is set to push for a cut in oil output at the meeting,
its oil minister said in comments published on Sunday, adding
that investment conditions in the oil industry would be severely
hit unless OPEC acted decisively to arrest the fall in prices.
Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest exporter and OPEC's most
influential member, has cut November supplies to one major
European refiner, according to a trade source. But the kingdom
told major Asian refiners that it would maintain crude oil
shipments unchanged. []
(Additional reporting by Fayen Wong in Perth; editing by James
Jukwey)
