* WHAT: November inflation, October industrial output
* WHEN: Dec. 8 (CPI), Dec. 12 (Industrial output)
* Consumer price growth seen decelerating, data to show
slowdown's extent
By Mirka Krufova and Jason Hovet
PRAGUE, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Czech consumer price inflation
probably eased further in November, while other data this month
is seen confirming an economic slowdown as the global financial
crisis bites, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.
A poll of 13 analyst groups put annual consumer inflation at
4.5 percent in November, its lowest since October 2007 and
sharply dropping from 6.0 percent seen the previous month as
food and fuel prices fall.
Inflation is expected to fall off further into 2009 and the
Czech central bank has already eased monetary policy in the face
of the slowdown in economic growth, with analysts expecting
lending rates to come down more in coming months.
Industrial production likely edged up an annual 0.3 percent
in October after a surprise 9.8 percent jump in September, the
poll also showed, more evidence that waning euro zone demand is
taking a toll on the country's manufacturers.
"Figures released in December are likely to deliver a clear
picture of the Czech economy, (with) decreasing production and
sales figures, (along with) strong disinflation in consumer and
producer prices," said David Marek, analyst with Patria Finance.
"One implication is straightforward: deeper (interest) rate
cuts in months to come."
The Czechs first turned monetary policy in August with a
quarter percentage point cut before surprising with a larger
than expected 75 basis point reduction to 2.75 percent in
November.
Central banks in Poland and Hungary have followed suit to
cut borrowing costs as growth outlooks darken and price
pressures fade.
The central bank will hold its last rate setting meeting of
the year on Dec. 17, and analysts said expected easing from the
European Central Bank and Bank of England this week will add
support to further easing of Czech rates.
The finance ministry expects economic growth of 4.4 percent
this year before slowing to 3.7 percent next year. However,
outside agencies have forecast 2009 growth below 3 percent with
the IMF saying last month it come in below 2 percent.
The economic slowdown -- after growth at a 6 percent clip in
previous years -- is already forcing employers to cut costs,
with the key automotive sector expected to cut thousands of jobs
next year.
Unemployment for November is expected to tick up to 5.3
percent from 5.2 percent in October, the poll said. October
retail sales will also likely slow to annual growth 0.6 percent.
"Unemployment data should confirm the situation on the
labour market has been worsening, and data on exports and
industrial output will also underscore a weak economic picture,"
said chief analyst Radomir Jac of Generali PPF Asset Management.
He added he expected an interest rate cut once more this
year. "The key question may be by how much," he said.
For a table with analysts' forecasts, click on []
(Writing by Jason Hovet; editing by Tony Austin)
