* ECB's Bini Smaghi says imported inflation can't be ignored
* Yen falls as S&P cuts Japan debt rating to AA minus
* Dollar index at 11-week low, dented by Fed statement
(Adds detail, updates prices)
By Jessica Mortimer
LONDON, Jan 27 (Reuters) - The euro hit a two-month high
against the dollar on Thursday after a euro zone policymaker
expressed concern about inflationary pressures, further
highlighting a policy divergence with the United States.
The single currency also hit a two-month high against the
yen, which fell broadly after S&P cut Japan's long-term debt
rating to AA minus, saying the country's government lacked a
coherent plan to tackle its mounting debt. []
European Central Bank policymaker Lorenzo Bini Smaghi warned
on Thursday that an expected rise in imported goods inflation
cannot be ignored [], supporting the view that euro
zone rates could rise sooner than previously thought.
The comments helped the euro extend earlier gains after a
Federal Reserve statement the previous day gave no indication
that it may back away from its loose monetary policy
[], contrasting with recent hawkish ECB rhetoric.
"The ECB has started to show more concern about secondary
price pressures, and the market has acknowledged that," said
Gavin Friend, currency strategist at nabCapital.
The euro <EUR=> rose as high as $1.3756, Reuters data
showed, its strongest since Nov. 22, as it kept intact a strong
uptrend from a four-month low below $1.29 hit earlier in the
month. It later eased to $1.3726, up 0.2 percent on the day.
The euro pierced resistance around $1.3740, the 61.8 percent
retracement of its two-month decline until early January.
Technical analysts said a daily close above that level would add
to the positive tone. The next target is the Nov. 22 high of
$1.3786 and some analysts say a break of this could prompt more
gains towards $1.40.
Against the yen, the euro <EURJPY=R> rose to 113.88 yen, its
strongest since Nov. 22, up around one percent on the day.
Falls versus the euro and more negative dollar sentiment
after the Fed statement helped push the dollar index <.DXY> down
0.4 percent to an 11-week low of 77.594.
YEN FALLS
Although Japan's fiscal troubles are well known, analysts
said the ratings cut called into question the yen's status as a
safe-haven currency, boosting the appeal of the dollar and the
likes of the Swiss franc.
The dollar was up 0.8 percent at 82.95 yen. It earlier rose
more than 1 percent to 83.20, briefly trading above its 55-day
moving average around 83.08.
Traders said offers between 83.10 and 83.30 yen may cap
gains, with reported stops placed above 83.30 yen and an options
expiry at 83.00 yen.
Implied option volatilities for dollar/yen briefly jumped on
the S&P downgrade but ended the morning little changed, with the
one-month <JPY1MO=> steady around 9.60.
However, traders said risk-reversals were showing less of a
bias for the yen. The three-month 25-delta <JPY3MRR=ICAP> last
traded around 0.56 for yen calls compared to 0.7 before the
downgrade. The one-month <JPY1MRR=ICAP> was trading around flat.
Analysts said the euro may be better-placed to gain against
the yen than the dollar, given its better rate outlook and
concerns about the hefty debt problems in the U.S. and the U.S.
government's loose fiscal policy.
Other currencies may also be better-placed, particularly the
Swiss franc, which may now be the favoured safe-haven currency.
It hit a high around 88.13 yen <CHFJPY=R>, its strongest since
April 2010.
"Given that we believe the immediate dollar-positive impact
of the news is likely to fade, we favor long positions in
cross-yen as a means of positioning for additional yen
depreciation," analysts at Citi said in a note.
<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Graphic comparing Japan's debt and deficit levels:
http://r.reuters.com/byz67r
See [] for BREAKINGVIEWS on Japan downgrade
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
(Additional reporting by Neal Armstrong, editing by Stephen
Nisbet)
