Jan 22 (Reuters) - Reuters has surveyed 30 emerging market strategists for
their views on when the newest members of the European Union are likely to adopt
the euro and when the EU may admit more new members.
Following is a summary of the results of the poll, taken January 12-22.
For a story on the results, see [].
For a TAKE A LOOK, see []
1. In what year do you expect these countries to formally adopt the euro?
Median Mean Mode Maximum Minimum F'casts
Bulgaria 2015 2015 2015 2020 2012 27
Czech Republic 2013 2013 2013 2015 2011 31
Estonia 2013 2013 2012 2017 2011 29
Hungary 2013 2014 2013 2017 2010 29
Latvia 2013 2014 2013 2020 2011 29
Lithuania 2013 2013 2012 2020 2011 29
Poland 2013 2013 2013 2015 2011 30
Romania 2015 2015 2015 2020 2013 28
2. Which ERM-2 countries do you expect to revalue/devalue their currencies in
the next 12 months?
NO CHANGE REVALUE DEVALUE
Bulgaria 17 0 6
Czech R 3 15 9
Estonia 20 0 5
Hungary 2 10 12
Latvia 19 0 6
Lithuania 19 0 6
Poland 4 12 9
Romania 3 6 14
3. Which are the biggest hurdles faced by EU countries on the road to euro
adoption: controlling inflation, controlling budget deficits, reducing public
debt, stabilising domestic currencies?
Control Control budget Cut public Stabilise
inflation deficits debt currencies
Bulgaria 21 4 2 7
Czech R 7 19 2 6
Estonia 21 8 1 7
Hungary 12 20 24 15
Latvia 21 13 2 8
Lithuania 21 10 1 8
Poland 8 18 4 11
Romania 20 22 2 19
4. In which year do you expect these currencies to enter the EU Exchange
Rate Mechanism and at what central parity rate to the euro upon joining?
(Tables show number of forecasts, some economists included more than once)
a. Year of joining
Median Mean Mode Max Min F'casts
Bulgarian Lev 2012 2012 2012 2015 2007 23
Czech Koruna 2011 2011 2011 2013 2010 27
Hungarian Forint 2011 2011 2012 2014 2009 26
Polish Zloty 2010 2010 2010 2012 2009 27
Romanian Leu 2012 2013 2012 2016 2011 25
b. What central parity rate to the euro
Median Mean Mode Max Min F'casts
Bulgarian Lev 1.96 2.02 1.96 2.40 1.95 14
Czech Koruna 25.25 25.61 28.00 32.40 23.00 16
Hungarian Forint 260.00 268.54 240.00 350.00 240.00 15
Polish Zloty 4.00 3.94 4.00 5.00 3.00 17
Romanian Leu 3.85 3.99 4.50 5.10 2.80 14
5. In which year will the following countries join the EU?
Median Mean Mode Max Min F'casts
Albania 2018 2018 2020 2025 2014 19
Bosnia 2018 2019 2020 2025 2012 22
Croatia 2012 2012 2012 2018 2010 25
Macedonia 2015 2016 2015 2020 2012 23
Montenegro 2016 2016 2015 2020 2012 22
Serbia 2016 2017 2020 2020 2014 21
Turkey 2020 2020 2020 2030 2013 20
6a. What is the likelihood in percentage terms that the EU will completely
suspend negotiations with Turkey before they are finished?
The median of 23 numeric forecasts was 30 pct.The range was 0 to 75 pct.
6b. What is the likelihood in percentage terms that Turkey pulls out of the
membership talks before they are complete?
The median of 23 numeric forecasts was 30 pct. The range was 5 to 100 pct.
(Factbox prepared by Dinesh Mehta in Bangalore)
(Editing by Ian Jones)
