PRAGUE, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Czech industrial output rose by
9.6 percent year-on-year in September, better than forecasts for
6.1 percent growth.
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KEY POINTS:
(y/y change in pct) Sept Aug Sept forecast
Industrial output 9.6 -2.6 6.1
Industrial sales 8.9 -2.8 n/a
(Full table of data............................[])
- Seasonally adjusted output was up 0.9 percent month-on-month.
- Seasonally adjusted output was up 3.4 percent year-on-year.
- Overall new orders fell 2.7 percent year-on-year, and new
orders from abroad decreased 7.8 percent.
COMMENTARY
RADOMIR JAC, ANALYST, GENERALI PPF ASSET MANAGEMENT
"While we had expected a robust result due to extremely
positive calendar effects, the increase in output is stronger
than we had predicted."
"At the same time, however, new orders have been falling and
are reflecting the negative impact of the Western European
recession on Czech exports."
"Furthermore, employment in industry fell again year-on-year
in September, which is a clear signal that both the global and
domestic economic slowdowns are taking their toll in the Czech
labour market, as Czech industry is heavily export-exposed."
JIRI SKOP, ANALYST, KOMERCNI BANKA
"Even after adjusting for working days, (the number) rose
3.4 percent, (although) in past months it was close to zero."
"It is a positive number, but I would not overestimate it
due to monthly volatility."
PETR DUFEK, ANALYST, CSOB
"The positive result is highly influenced by the high number
of working days, therefore the figure is nice, but influenced
more than half by the different number of days."
"But overall, industrial production is on a positive path,
especially due to electronics production and production of cars.
"Carmakers are probably not so influenced by the present
slowdown of demand in western Europe. Moreover (the new car
plant of) Hyundai will improve the results of industrial firms
in the next couple years."
JAROMIR SINDEL, ANALYST, CITIBANK
"The number is better than expected, thanks to the higher
number of working days. However, after adjusting, the index
remains relatively weak, close to 3 percent to 4 percent."
"The decline in employment (in the industrial sector)
indicates that probably companies are curbing staff at times
when they expect weaker demand in future. So the outlook remains
negative."
BACKGROUND:
- August foreign trade figures....................[]
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision........[]
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LINKS:
- For further details on September output and sales numbers and
past data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech
Statistical Bureau's Website:
http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-pru
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
(Reporting by Jana Mlcochova; Editing by Michael Winfrey)
