(Adds Czech crown/euro rates)
WHAT: The Czech central bank (CNB) meets on interest rates
WHEN: May 5, decision at 1200 GMT, news conference 1330 GMT
REUTERS FORECAST: 19 of 22 analysts polled by Reuters expect
the bank to keep the key two-week repo rate <CZRP=> <CZCBIR=ECI>
flat at an all-time low 0.75 percent while three see a 25 basis
point hike.
Six see a quarter-point hike in June and then a period of
stability.
Fourteen analysts predict a 25 basis point increase in the
third quarter. That includes the three who expect a hike in May,
as they see another one in the coming quarter.
The poll showed a median forecast for the two-week repo rate
at 1.50 percent in 12 months.
FACTORS TO WATCH:
The Czech central bank is facing mixed factors: inflation
has been below forecast throughout the first quarter, with
demand-pull pressures muted, and government budget cuts are
expected to suppress domestic demand going forward.
But upside CPI pressures are coming from elevated global
commodity prices, with the impact of oil price rises already
filtering through to domestic prices.
A shrinking jobless rate, reviving retail sales and robust
industrial output buoyed by foreign demand also pose an upward
risk to the inflation outlook.
A strong crown, however, has been able to contain a large
part of the imported inflation.
"The exchange rate could be the preferred route for monetary
policy tightening given the combination of a foreign-driven
recovery and high imported commodity prices," said Jaromir
Sindel, chief economist at Citibank in Prague, who predicts no
change in May and a hike in June.
The local currency <EURCZK=D3> has risen by around 1.6
percent since the last rate meeting on March 24, and was trading
at 24.200 to the euro at 0745 GMT on Monday.
The central bank expects the average rate in the second
quarter at 24.3. The 90-day moving average rate was 24.380 on
Monday.
The bank will release a new inflation forecast on May 5,
including an outlook for three-month PRIBOR forward rates seen
by markets as a proxy for policy rates.
All seven board members will take part in the meeting.
Opinions of policymakers on rates have diverged in recent weeks.
One group of ratesetters favours higher rates, arguing that
the current ultra-low rates are fit only for times of recession.
Other board members, including Vice-Governor Mojmir Hampl,
favour no change, pointing to tamed inflation and an unclear debt
outlook for the euro zone. []
Table: []
Czech central bank web site: www.cnb.cz
All Czech economic data: <ECONALLCZ>
Central and Eastern Europe market reports: []
Governor Singer at March 24 conference []
(Reporting by Mirka Krufova, writing by Jana Mlcochova;
Editing by John Stonestreet)
