* Exports jump in Hungary, Romania, Slovakia in November
* German demand helps trade balances improve more than fcast
* Czech jobless rises 1 percentage point, back near highs
By Michael Winfrey
PRAGUE, Jan 10 (Reuters) - November trade data from Hungary,
Romania and Slovakia beat market forecasts on Monday, but a jump
in Czech unemployment and prices signalled the potential
headwinds to growth for governments implementing austerity
measures.
The data confirmed the trend of a double-digit surge in
manufacturing sales to Germany, emerging Europe's biggest
market, and led many economists to temper their forecasts for a
slowdown in growth at the start of next year.
Hungary, struggling to climb back to growth following years
of austerity measures that have eroded household spending,
posted a much better than expected 651.5 million euro trade
surplus in November, helped by a 20.2 percent rise in exports.
Neighbouring Slovakia also beat market forecasts with a 67
million euro surplus, helped by a 20.6 percent export rise.
Output data also showed industrial activity expanded by 17.3
percent in November.
Romania, which once ran a vast trade gap that led to a
financing crisis and an international bailout in 2009, saw its
trade deficit narrow 3.5 percent from a year earlier to 8.6
billion euros.
All three countries also showed very strong import growth,
which is usually due to high demand from factories producing
finished goods that are sold on to other countries.
Some analysts pointed out that the growth was heavily
dependent on demand in Germany, where data on Friday showed the
trade surplus narrowed on an import gain, suggesting German
consumers were becoming more confident.
"Clearly, we are continuing to surf on the German
mini-miracle but our exposure to the economic cycle and recovery
there remains huge," said Gyorgy Barta, an analyst at the
Central European International Bank.
"The news is, of course, positive from a growth perspective.
Nevertheless, we still expect a smaller contribution from net
exports in 2011."
The region's currencies shrugged off the data, instead
weakening on debt worries in the euro zone periphery. The
Hungarian forint <EURHUF=>, seen as the region's most vulnerable
unit, weakened most and was down 0.65 percent on the day at 0940
GMT.
CZECH JOBS
Following last week's strong December purchasing managers
index (PMI) figures gauging sentiment among producers, most
economists now expect the European Union's eastern wing to post
strong first-quarter growth instead of their previous forecasts
for a slowdown. []
But some clouds remain.
In the Czech Republic, where the government has introduced
an austerity package to cut the public sector wage bill by 10
percent, extend tax hikes and halt infrastructure payments,
unemployment jumped a full percentage point to 9.6 percent in
December.
The Labour Ministry said the rise was due to the growing
number of small business failures as consumers' purchasing power
drops and tougher rules on claiming unemployment due to take
effect in January, which prompted more people to register as
jobless last month. The figure was near a peak hit in February
last year.
"The main source of the unemployment is without any doubt
government policy - the decrease in overall wage levels," said
Pavel Mertlik, chief economist at Raiffeisenbank Prague.
Czech consumer prices rose 0.5 percent in December from
November, other data showed. It was the largest monthly rise
since last January and above market expectations, and brought
the annual inflation rate for 2010 to 2.3 percent.
Analysts said the data could potentially push forward the
central bank's assumptions for the timing of its next rate hike.
Most analysts expect the Czech central bank to raise rates from
a record low 0.75 percent in the second half of this year, and
the bank could move sooner in that half rather than later if
prices keep climbing.
(Editing by Hugh Lawson)
