* Polish zloty seen flat at 4.6/euro in 6 mths, 4.40 in 12 mths
* Czech crown seen weaker at 28.35 in 6 mths, 27 in 12 mths
* Hungarian forint seen firmer at 285 in 6 mths, 280 in 12 mths
* Romanian leu seen weaker at 4.4 in 6 mths, 4.30 in 12 mths
For table []
For Analysts' View []
By Sandor Peto
BUDAPEST, Feb 6 (Reuters) - The European Union's main
emerging currencies will slide further against the euro and are
not expected to recover from steep falls until the second half
of the year, a Reuters poll of analysts showed on Friday.
Spooked by the region's slide towards recession, investors
have dumped its assets, pushing the Polish zloty and Hungarian
forint some 30 percent lower versus the single currency since
August, the Romanian leu percent and the Czech crown 15 percent.
The monthly survey of 45 analysts, traders and strategists
sees the currencies easing slightly and recovering only in July.
The median forecast put the zloty <EURPLN=> a touch weaker
from now to 4.63 per euro by end-April, then slowly recovering
to 4.4 in 12 months. The crown <EURCZK=> was seen easing to 28.8
per euro in three months and then recovering to 27.0 in 12
months.
The forint <EURHUF=> was seen hovering at around 300 per
euro, from 292.65 now, for the next three months. Then it is
seen rebounding to 285 in six months and 280 in 12.
The leu <EURRON=20> was seen weakening to 4.47 per euro by
April, before recovering to 4.3 a year from now.
"Near the end of the second quarter, in developed economies
the recession can become milder; this can start to improve risk
appetite, and in turn have a beneficial impact on currencies,"
said Gergely Suppan of DZ Bank in Budapest.
"We expect a trend reversal around the middle of the year."
The estimates covered wide ranges, underlining deep
uncertainty over the region's ability to weather the crisis, and
several analysts expected deep losses before a recovery.
The six-month estimates for the zloty ranged from 4.20 to
5.20 per euro. For the forint it was 263 to 350 and the crown
26.0 to 31.5. The leu was seen ranging from 4.10 to 5.20.
RISK PERSISTS
Economic data indicate the crisis has been gaining speed in
the past months, with all of the economies seen teetering on the
brink or stumbling over it into recession.
Central banks have cut rates to avert that, disregarding the
currency falls, but sustained weakness and high volatility has
triggered concern that defaults on household loans taken in
foreign currencies like the Swiss franc or yen is straining the
banking system.
In Hungary, a weak forint has boosted monthly repayments for
hundreds of thousands of foreign exchange borrowers who hold
debt equivalent to a total 9 percent of gross domestic product.
Analysts said at least some central banks may soon end their
easing cycles to staunch an outflow of capital, analysts said.
"We expect the Hungarian Monetary Council to temporarily
halt the monetary easing in order to halt the depreciation,"
Wood & Company said in a note.
On the other hand, the floating currencies give policymakers
more room to manoeuvre than countries with fixed rates like the
Baltic states, Bulgaria, or euro zone newcomer Slovakia,
allowing them to gradually unravel external imbalances and boost
activity as currency weakness makes exports cheaper.
But that will take time to filter through, analysts said.
"The zloty will remain under pressure due to the unpleasant
devaluation spiral," said Ulrich Leuchtmann, an analyst at
Commerzbank. "In the medium run, the significant undervaluation
of PLN should lead to significant recovery potential."
For details of poll and further comments please click on
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(Reporting by Sandor Peto; Editing by Andy Bruce)
