PRAGUE, Feb 13 (Reuters) - The Czech economy grew by a
better-than-expected 1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008 on
an annual basis, but it contracted by 0.6 percent versus the
previous three months, data showed on Friday.
The market had expected seasonally-adjusted year-on-year
growth of 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter, following third
quarter growth of 4.2 percent.
The Czech expansion lagged the boom in neighbouring
Slovakia, which posted 2.7 percent growth from October to
December. But it outpaced regional laggard Hungary, which
reported a 2.0 percent contraction.
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KEY POINTS:
(pct change) Q4/08 Q3/08 Fcast Q4
year/year 1.0 4.2 0.2
- GDP down 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter when adjusted for
seasonal factors and the difference in working days.
COMMENTS:
RAFFAELLA TENCONI, ANALYST, WOOD & COMPANY
"It's slightly weaker than I expected but significantly
stronger than consensus. It doesn't really change the outlook
going forward."
"Our outlook is significantly worse than the Czech central
bank's prediction. We're looking at -2.0 percent growth for all
of 2009, and if anything, there are downside risk to it... given
the euro zone GDP numbers earlier today that were also
appalling."
"We're still looking for another 75 basis points interest
rate cuts in the next couple of months and then a hold for the
rest of the year."
MARTIN LOBOTKA, ANALYST, CESKA SPORITELNA
"I expected a drop, so I take it as a surprise. When I look
at the drop in industry, which was 4.5 percent, I wonder what it
was (to lift GDP higher)."
JIRI SKOP, ANALYST, KOMERCNI BANKA
"It was more than the market and we had expected. The data
had pointed to a bigger fall."
"From the monetery policy point of view it is
anti-inflationary because it is below the (central bank's)
forecast."
LARS CHRISTENSEN, HEAD OF EMERGING MARKETS RESEARCH, DANSKE
BANK
"These numbers are bit better than our expectation, but
worse than the consensus expectation."
"The numbers further confirms that the Czech economy is
heading for recession. We now find it likely that Czech GDP will
drop by at least 2 percent year-on-year in 2009. We see no
reason why the CNB should not continue to ease monetary policy
going forward."
BACKGROUND:
- For story on analysts' expectations before the data release,
double click on [] []
- Slovak Q4 GDP []
- Poland's Q3 GDP []
- Hungary's Q4 GDP []
LINKS:
- For further details on fourth quarter GDP and past data,
Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical
Bureau's Website:
http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-hdp
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
(Reporting by Jason Hovet)
