* Polish PMI at 25-month high in March []
* Czech PMI at two-year high []
* Output posts strong growth
* Hungarian PMI down to 54.4 points []
By Karolina Slowikowska
WARSAW, April 1 (Reuters) - A surge in new orders pushed
manufacturing in emerging Europe's two core economies to
multi-year highs in March, but analysts said consumer demand
remained weak and doubted the recovery had fully taken hold.
Galloping euro zone exports have helped lift badly battered
manufacturing in European Union members Poland and the Czech
Republic and eased the effect of rising unemployment, low wage
growth and tight credit conditions there.
But analysts warned the jump in manufacturing belied
temporary effects from global inventory restocking and fiscal
stimulus programmes such as car-scrapping schemes, and said the
trend could wane around mid-year when their effects diminish.
The Polish Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) <PLPMI=ECI> rose
to 52.6 points last month, slightly below analysts' forecasts
but still a 25-month high, Markit Economics data showed on
Thursday.
The Czech PMI rose to 56.8 -- a two year peak and well above
the 50 mark that demarcates expansion from contraction.
The Czech data was driven largely by a jump in exports, the
fastest in three years. The Czechs are a key link in the German
export supply chain and have been helped by a surge in orders
there. []
Markit also noted Czech producers had begun hiring new
workers, which could help unemployment peak earlier than before
the end of the year, as expected.
But analysts noted that recent jobs, construction and retail
sales data showed a more complicated picture and remained
cautious on whether the data signalled the recovery was at hand.
"Industry is rebounding but we will see in the months ahead
whether it is temporary or sustainable," said Jan Vejmelek, head
of economic and strategy research at Komercni Banka in Prague.
"Still, from real figures, it is clear the real economy is
driven by fiscal stimulus, like scrapping schemes from last
year. It is a question if it is only temporary or sustainable."
Hungarian PMI, compiled under different methodology than the
HSBC/Markit data, fell to 54.4 from revised 56 in February.
POLISH PUSH
Poland remains one of the EU's best off economies, with
analysts predicting growth of 2.8 percent this year, versus 1.7
percent in 2009 -- which was the only growth in the 27-member
bloc.
The PMI rose for the fifth straight month there but slowed,
while manufacturers continued to cut workforce, reflecting a
continuously strained labour market. Labour ministry officials
have signalled that unemployment, now at 13 percent, should
probably not rise much more.
But economists said the data showed Poland could be entering
a period of slower expansion.
"It shows the situation between February and March has not
really changed. This is not the level that could guarantee a GDP
growth rise of above 3 percent (for the year)," said Jaroslaw
Janecki, chief economist at Societe Generale in Warsaw.
"Developments in Germany, our main trade partner, will be of
high importance. Growing external demand could be of help in the
coming months."
HSBC noted in a statement released with the data that PMI
indicated downward pressure on consumer prices that had resulted
from a stronger zloty currency, which has gained almost 7
percent against the euro since the start of the year.
Both the Czech and Polish central banks left rates on hold
over the past week, and analysts expect weak price pressure, as
well as struggling domestic demand, to potentially delay policy
tightening originally expected as early as the third quarter.
(Additional reporting by Jana Mlcochova in Prague and
Dagmara Leszkowicz in Warsaw; Editing by Toby Chopra)
