* OPEC doesn't see Egypt unrest threatening oil supply
* Improved outlook, U.S. economic data also support oil
* Coming up: API oil inventory data, 4:30 p.m. EST Tuesday
(Adds quotes in paragraphs 5-6)
By Robert Gibbons
NEW YORK, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Brent crude topped $100 a
barrel for the first time since 2008 on Monday, jumping more
than 1 percent on unrest in Egypt and rising demand
expectations.
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak overhauled his government
in an attempt to defuse a popular uprising that has raised
concerns about oil shipments passing through the Suez Canal or
that the unrest could spread to Middle East oil producers.
[] []
The surge in Brent, which has climbed from $70 a barrel in
August on rising global demand, has also stirred worries in
consumer nations that a hike in fuel prices could stall a
global economic recovery.
Officials from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries (OPEC) said there was no shortage of oil in the
market and no need to increase production right now.
[]
"The whole situation in the Middle East has got traders
very nervous even though crude is still coming through the Suez
Canal," said Mike Zarembski, senior commodities analyst for
optionsXpress in Chicago.
"If the trouble spreads to other oil-exporting countries in
the region, it could push prices higher."
Severe cold in parts of the Northern Hemisphere this winter
has also underpinned oil's recent rally. Supportive U.S.
Midwest factory activity and firmer consumer spending stoked
demand expectations and helped turn crude strongly positive.
[]
In London, ICE Brent crude for March <LCOc1> rose $1.59 to
settle at $101.01 a barrel and reached $101.73 intraday, the
highest since prices touched $103.29 on Sept. 29, 2008.
U.S. crude oil for March delivery <CLc1> rose $2.85, or
3.19 percent, to settle at $92.19 a barrel, reaching $92.84
intraday, both the highest since October 2008.
Analysts and brokers had expected Brent's move over $100 to
help U.S. crude push above $92.58, the previous 2011 peak from
Jan. 3.
"Momentum is up. Traders are buying dips on fears that
things could escalate further in the Middle East and spread to
other countries," said Tom Bentz, broker at BNP Paribas
Commodity Futures Inc in New York. []
Oil prices were choppy earlier, with traders reassessing
Friday's price surge after fears about contagion failed to
materialize at the weekend.
The U.S. price strength narrowed the benchmark West Texas
Intermediate crude's discount to Brent to less than $9 a barrel
after the spread <CL-LCO1=R> widened to a near record above $12
a barrel last week.
Dwindling North Sea production and high U.S. crude
inventories, especially at the Cushing, Oklahoma, WTI delivery
point, have been factors seen as causing the spread to widen,
along with investors' attraction to the bullish momentum.
U.S. distillates were seen falling for the week to Jan. 28
due to cold weather in the giant U.S. Northeast heating oil
market, while an increase in imports was seen boosting U.S.
crude stockpiles, according to a Reuters poll of analysts ahead
of U.S. inventory data due on Tuesday and Wednesday.
[]
CONTAGION FEAR
Egypt is not a major oil producer but protests and demands
for political change there come two weeks after Tunisia's
president was overthrown and investors worry that oil-producing
states in the region may face similar protests.
<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
For more on Egypt and oil from Reuters Insider:
http://link.reuters.com/wap77r
For a feature on the Suez canal: []
For an analysis on investor risks in Egypt:
[]
For a FACTBOX on energy risks in Egypt: []
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
Egypt controls the Suez Canal and the Suez-Mediterranean
(SUMED) Pipeline, which together moved over 2 million barrels
per day (bpd) of crude and oil products in 2009.
Shipping has so far proceeded as normal through the 192-km
(120-mile) Suez Canal shipping choke point but port operations
have been slowed by the protests. []
OPEC RESPONSE
OPEC Secretary General Abdullah al-Badri said the producer
group would boost oil supply in the event of a real shortage,
but did not expect unrest in Egypt to affect the Suez Canal or
SUMED pipeline oil flows. []
OPEC ministers will discuss oil output policy on the
sidelines of a conference in Saudi Arabia next month, an OPEC
delegate told Reuters. []
Ministers are scheduled to meet on Feb. 22 in Riyadh with
counterparts from oil-consuming nations and the International
Energy Agency gathering at the International Energy Forum.
But Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi told an industry
conference that the price spike had more to do with the value
of the dollar and the behavior of oil traders. []
The dollar weakened against a basket of currencies, with
the dollar index <.DXY> down 0.41 percent as euro zone
inflation topped forecasts, supporting the view that interest
rates in the region could rise before those in the United
States. []
(Additional reporting by Gene Ramos and Janet McGurty in New
York, Jessica Donati in London and Alejandro Barbajosa in
Singapore; Editing by Matthew Robinson and Dale Hudson)
