* For poll data click on <EMUPOLL30>
* Greek debt ordeal to push delay CEE euro plans -poll
* Only Estonia seen adopting euro sooner than thought
* Keeping lid on budget deficits seen as biggest challenge
* Click here for graphic: http://r.reuters.com/qaj62j
By Andy Bruce
LONDON, Feb 24 (Reuters) - The Greek debt crisis has
undermined faith in the euro's further enlargement, likely
pushing back euro adoption for the biggest emerging European
economies by at least a year, a Reuters poll showed.
Analysts surveyed between Feb 16-24 still pointed to budget
deficits of candidate countries as the main economic barrier to
joining, but they said the political climate around the project
had changed.
The poll of 44 top economists suggested European
policymakers, stung by their Greek ordeal, will measure euro
aspirants against the Maastricht adoption criteria with a new
intensity, until they are certain entrants are on a solid
economic footing.
Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Bulgaria will each
need a year more than predicted in the last poll in November to
get their economies into shape to adopt Europe's common
currency, median forecasts from the quarterly poll showed.
"The euro zone countries will want to be absolutely sure
that they are not bringing a new 'Greece' to the club," said
Diego Iscaro, economist at IHS Global Insight.
Others said it was less a question of which countries might
join the 16-member bloc, as who might leave it.
Twenty-eight out of 44 economists said the impact of the
Greek debt crisis could knock back the majority of euro
aspirants' adoption plans by at least a year.
The poll found only Estonia, whose finance minister told
Reuters last week the country is firmly on track to join the
euro in 2011, had the consensus for its euro adoption forecast
brought forward to match that date.
"I think things are so uncertain, it's very difficult to
forecast what the euro zone will look like in five years time,"
said Neil Shearing, senior emerging markets economist at
consultancy Capital Economics in London.
"I guess in that context, perhaps you do become more reliant
on signals from policymakers as to how quick accession might
be."
For a factbox on the poll, click []
DEFICIT CHALLENGE
The need to keep budget deficits in check was by far the
most common obstacle identified by forecasters for countries
trying to meet the rules of the ERM-2 currency grid that must
precede full euro membership.
Budget deficits must fall under 3 percent of GDP as a
precondition to euro entry under the Maastricht Treaty.
Poland, the region's biggest economy, saw its budget deficit
balloon to an estimated 7.2 percent of GDP in 2009 and a
government plan to more than halve it to meet the ERM-2 limit by
2012 has been described by analysts as vague and ambitious.
[]
"The biggest problem Poland has to face on its road to
adopting euro is the reform of the public finance system," said
Joanna Pluta at TMS Brokers in Warsaw.
"Taking into account a lower GDP growth rate, which
influences lower tax receipts, the real time to reduce the
budget deficit to 3 percent of GDP is the year 2012."
In the Czech Republic, poll respondents picked out a lack of
political will as a challenge equal to keeping a lid on the
budget deficit. Like elsewhere in Eastern Europe, the Czech
public's enthusiasm for the single currency has dwindled
markedly in recent months. []
"Few seem to be in a rush to lock into the euro and many
will be struggling to control high budget deficits for several
years to come," said Nigel Rendell, emerging markets strategist
at RBC Capital Markets.
Controlling inflation, which scuppered Lithuania's common
currency bid in 2007 but is now seen as less of a problem among
most of the region's economies, could yet prove troublesome in
neighbours Bulgaria and Romania, the poll showed.
For the Baltic countries, most likely to become the next
euro zone members, fears of a sudden currency devaluation appear
have receded after their pegs to the euro became a great source
of strain during the worst of the global recession.
Almost all respondents said they saw Estonian, Lithuanian
and Latvian currencies mostly unchanged over the next 12 months.
"We do not think the Baltic states will let their pegs slip
and have strong backing from the European Commission and
Sweden," said Peter Attard Montalto, emerging markets economist
at Nomura.
With the exception of Croatia in 2012, further enlargement
of the 27-nation European Union looks unlikely in the next few
years, the poll showed. Turkey, Albania and Bosnia will have to
wait until the next decade for EU accession.
For an analysis on EMU convergence, click []
(Polling by Bangalore polling unit; editing by Patrick
Graham)
