Feb 24 (Reuters) - The Greek crisis has likely delayed euro
adoption for the biggest emerging European economies by at least
a year, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.
A poll of 44 strategists taken Feb 16-24 suggested that
European policymakers will measure euro aspirants against the
Maastricht adoption criteria with a new intensity.
Following are selected comments from economists.
PETER ATTARD MONTALTO, NOMURA
"We do not think the Baltic states will let their pegs slip
and have strong backing from the European Commission and
Sweden."
"Estonia is a strong and dynamic economy that has fared the
crisis pretty well and as such I think there is enough momentum
both there, in core Europe member states and the Commission to
allow them to join the euro next year."
"After the elections, we expect the new FIDESZ government in
Hungary to want to join the euro at the end of its first term in
2015 and as such will set an ERM-II target of 2012."
"In the Czech Republic we see little appetite for the euro
and they won't join any time soon. For Poland, complacency in
the budget with rising debt will cause headaches for the
government but we still see them charging ahead and trying to
enter ERM-II mid-next year."
DIEGO ISCARO, IHS GLOBAL INSIGHT
"The euro zone countries will want to be absolutely sure
that they are not bringing a new 'Greece' to the club. One
consequence may be that they will take a long and detailed view
of the statistical data presented by the candidate country
before allowing it to join the common currency area, and this
might result in some delay."
"Political support for an enlargement may have also
decreased following the crisis. It will be interesting to see
the EC and the ECB asking new members to achieve the convergence
criteria when most of the existing members are expected to run
large deficit and debt levels for some time to come."
CEZARY CHRAPEK, BANK ZACHODNI WBK
"In countries which went through the global crisis
relatively well, like in the case of Poland, the problem of
Greece may have no impact on the date of euro zone entry.
Moreover, as indicated by ECB President Jean Claude Trichet the
way Poland went through the crisis diminished concerns of the
ECB over Poland's potential hidden structural weaknesses."
"Such weaknesses emerged in some other Eastern European
countries and, what is more, in peripheral euro zone countries.
Trichet's comments support the view that the ECB would rather
not put obstacles in front of Polish authorities, when they
decide to adopt euro after meeting Maastricht criteria"
PASQUALE DIANA/OLIVER WEEKS, MORGAN STANLEY
"The unfolding Greek drama risks having ramifications on
longer-term CEE euro adoption prospects. This is the first real
test for the euro's institutional framework."
"Even though we think the test will be passed, this episode
will act for years as a reminder that it is not enough to meet
the nominal Maastricht criteria to prove ability to live in
EMU."
"The current crisis experienced by Greece and others
suggests that, aside from insistence on the Maastricht criteria,
the EC/ECB may start putting far more emphasis on factors such
as external imbalances, budget positions, proven ability to
implement counter-cyclical fiscal policy, policy credibility
overall."
"In this scenario, investors may think about re-pricing CEE
convergence, and companies which invest in the region may want
to prepare about planning for FX volatility for a decade or
more, rather than just four or five years."
ANNA ZADORNOVA, GOLDMAN SACHS
"Even prior to the debt issues in Southern Europe, the
deterioration in fiscal balances across the CEE implied that
none of the bigger CE-3 economies would be in the euro zone
until 2015 at the earliest."
"The new risk related to the current situation in Southern
Europe is that the ECB/ECOFIN might seek to keep out even those
countries that meet the Maastricht criteria - this could be a
more long term negative factor, reducing the incentives for
policy discipline for Euro aspirants"
