* Hungarian forint, Polish zloty off highs
* All eyes on inflation outlook, ECB stance
BUCHAREST, April 7 (Reuters) - Central European currencies
edged down on Thursday with the Hungarian forint retreating from
11-month highs as the region's markets stayed focused on
European Central Bank policy moves due later in the day.
The ECB is poised to raise interest rates for the first time
since July 2008 and more hikes are likely to follow but, fearful
of heaping more pain on the euro zone's stragglers, it is
expected to give few clues about when the next move will come.
[]
"Obviously the highlight of the day will be the ECB. Until
then I would not expect the ... region to show a meaningful
direction," said a trader in Budapest.
"The market will be in a wait-and-see mode ... with the
focus squarely on comments (from ECB president Jean-Claude
Trichet) at the accompanying press conference on how
decision-makers see the inflation outlook."
There were no immediate signs of market impact from
Portugal's move late on Wednesday to seek financial aid.
ECB policymakers have been out in force in recent weeks
flagging a hike, and all but four of 80 economists polled by
Reuters last week expected the central bank to raise rates by 25
basis points.
"Trichet faces once more a difficult task to explain its
decision to the markets and to put it in a forward-looking
framework," KBC said in a morning note.
By 0715 GMT, the Hungarian forint <EURHUF=> was 0.3 percent
lower and the Polish zloty <EURPLN=> dipped 0.2. The Czech crown
<EURCZK=> was flat while Romania's leu <EURRON=> was 0.1 percent
down.
Any clues Trichet gives about further tightening "could be
positive for central and eastern European currencies including
the Romanian leu," said Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc of ING
Bank in Bucharest.
Dealers said they did not see much room for further upside
in the forint versus the euro after recent hefty gains.
Hungary's industrial output <HUIND=ECI> rose by a higher
than expected annual 14.3 percent in February after a 13.4
percent rise in January, the Central Statistics Office (KSH)
said on Thursday.
The February figure, based on preliminary unadjusted data,
was well above analysts' median forecast of 11.7 percent in a
Reuters poll <HUIND1>. []
Hungary will publish March public sector balance figures at
1500 GMT <HUDEF=ECI>.
Czech central banker Kamil Janacek said he saw enough
factors for a rise from record low interest rates at a meeting
in May. []
His comments followed remarks by fellow ratesetter Pavel
Rezabek, who said rates could rise in May if upside CPI risks
were to materialise.
"Considering both comments, we still do not believe that a
rate hike is imminent," Danske Bank said in a morning note.
Twelve of 19 analysts in a Reuters poll predicted the first
Czech hike would come by June. Interest rates markets <CZKFRA>
price in a full quarter point hike in a four month time, which
is at the August meeting.
--------------------------MARKET SNAPSHOT--------------------
Currency Latest Previous Local Local
close currency currency
change change
today in 2011
Czech crown <EURCZK=> 24.398 24.396 -0.01% +2.47%
Polish zloty <EURPLN=> 3.978 3.972 -0.15% -0.5%
Hungarian forint <EURHUF=> 264.1 263.2 -0.34% +5.26%
Croatian kuna <EURHRK=> 7.369 7.368 -0.01% +0.15%
Romanian leu <EURRON=> 4.109 4.105 -0.1% +3.02%
Serbian dinar <EURRSD=> 101.93 101.82 -0.11% +3.92%
All data taken from Reuters at 0919 CET.
Currency percent change calculated from the daily domestic
close at 1600 GMT.
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(Reporting by Reuters bureaus; Editing by John Stonestreet)
