(Updates with closing prices)
By Pedro Nicolaci da Costa
NEW YORK, Jan 2 (Reuters) - Global stocks soared into the
new year on Friday, with U.S. and European markets rallying as
investors hoped aggressive government policies would steady a
wobbly global economy.
The strides in equities were a sign of just how browbeaten
investors had been in a year that saw the worst performance
since the 1930s, and came despite news of a worldwide
contraction in the manufacturing sector.
Investors seemed to set aside the bad news, pushing the Dow
Jones industrial average <> up a whopping 258 points, or
2.94 percent. The FTSE Eurofirst <FTEU3> jumped 2.98 percent,
with traders evidently hoping that with 2008 so bad, 2009 could
only be better.
"We're seeing some New Year optimism," said Andre Bakhos,
president of Princeton Financial Group, in Princeton, New
Jersey. Global stocks as measured by the MSCI world index
<.MIWD00000PUS> were up 2 percent.
Yet the economic backdrop was hardly comforting. Factories
in China, India and Eastern Europe joined the United States and
other developed countries in slashing output and jobs in
December, another sign recession is spreading to emerging
markets.
U.S. manufacturers had their worst December since 1980, and
new orders fell to a record low, according to the Institute for
Supply Management. The downturn was even more severe than
already pessimistic economist forecasts.
In Europe, the industry group's index hit a record low.
This pointed to a deepening recession on the continent and sent
investors back into dollars and out of the euro.
"It casts an even darker shadow over the state of the euro
zone economy," said Bank of America economist Gilles Moec.
"We think it is consistent with a major contraction in GDP
both in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of
2009 -- probably something like a contraction of a full
percentage point in both quarters."
The euro <EUR=> was down 1 percent against the dollar at
$1.3854.
Given weakness in the economy, analysts expect any stimulus
package that emerges from President-elect Barack Obama's
administration to be quite large -- perhaps as big as $1
trillion. Still, few expect the benefits to be immediate. At
best, the government's efforts will prevent a deeper downturn,
economists say.
While the going was good for stocks, U.S. Treasury debt
prices dipped in a sign investors' aversion to risk was easing
a bit after a year in which $14 trillion was wiped off world
stock markets.
Benchmark 10-year <US10YT=RR> notes were down 1-25/32 and
yielding 2.41 percent, up 19 basis points from Wednesday but
still not too far above a 50-year low of 2.04 percent set in
December.
The oil markets, meanwhile, were back on the upswing,
powered by the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians and
Russia's vow to cut off gas supplies to neighboring Ukraine.
A barrel of crude oil was trading up $1.41 at $46.04. Oil
prices fell 54 percent as a whole in 2008, from $95.98 to
$44.60 a barrel at the close on Dec. 31, with the spike to
$147.27 set on July 11 in between. As demand dissolved in the
wake of the global recession, prices were hammered in the
closing months of the year.
(Reporting by Pedro Nicolaci da Costa; Editing by Dan
Grebler)
