PRAGUE, Nov 12 (Reuters) - The Czech current account posted
a deficit of 10.95 billion crowns ($545.3 million) in September,
five times bigger than the market forecast of a 1.95 billion
crown gap, data showed on Wednesday.
The 12-month rolling deficit jumped on a month-on-month
basis to 81.4 billion crowns, or 2.3 percent of last year's
estimated gross domestic product (GDP), according to Reuters
calculations.
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KEY POINTS:
(CZK billions) Sept Aug Sept forecast
Current Account -10.95 -12.17 -1.95
Financial Account 20.92 15.03 n/a
Net Direct Investment 8.88 11.14 n/a
(For full table, double click on [])
HELENA HORSKA, ANALYST, RAIFFEISENBANK
"The current account deficit showed the worst September
result since 2003... While the trade balance and balance of
services developed favourably, dividend payouts pulled the
current account to minus."
"Although the September deficit is at record, the inflow of
capital on the financial account has easily covered it."
PAVEL SOBISEK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, UNICREDIT, PRAGUE
"It's much worse than expected... from dividend outflows.
The income balance is actually the only surprise in the figures.
It appears the trend of repatriating profit as much as possible
is ongoing, which will likely deteriorate the full-year current
account ratio as well."
"Next year this ratio will improve again as corporates will
not impose such a big profit that can be repatriated. It is a
consequence of especially last year's extremely good
profitability of corporations."
DAVID MAREK, ANALYST, PATRIA FINANCE
"The Czech Republic does not have problems with its current
account deficit, but with the financial crisis and threatening
recession in the euro zone, the problems of an external
imbalance in the Czech economy can only deepen."
"For the next year we are threatened with a worsening in the
financial account, which covers the deficit of the current
account... and we may see bigger dividend outflow due to
difficulties of getting in the whole of Europe."
- The deficit was due to a 28.30 billion crown deficit on the
income balance (dividend payments).
- The trade balance and the balance of services ran a surplus.
The balance of current transfers included a deficit of CZK 1.9
billion on transfers from the EU budget to the Czech Republic.
As for the capital account, a net total of CZK 0.3 billion was
drawn from the EU budget.
- Capital inflow on the financial account was around CZK 20.9
billion under ECB methodology.
- The net inflow of direct investment was CZK 8.8 billion, of
which net estimated reinvested earnings were around CZK 9
billion. Portfolio investment outflow was CZK 5.8 billion. Power
group CEZ <> placed a 30 year, 12 billion Japanese yen
bond and a 30 year, 6 million euro bond in September.
-The annual net direct investment inflow total has been
increasing slightly.
- The 12-month portfolio investment total recorded a surplus due
to foreign bond issues in recent months.
- Other investment showed a surplus of CZK 15.9 billion, owing
to a change in the short-term international position of banks.
The government sector drew on an EIB loan of CZK 0.9 billion.
BACKGROUND:
- Analyst expectations before data release []
- Polish Aug C/A []
- Slovak Aug C/A gap []
- Hungary's Q2 C/A gap []
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decisio.........[]
[] [] []
LINKS:
- For further details on September of payments numbers and past
data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech National
Bank's website:
http://www.cnb.cz/en/statistics/bop_stat/
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
(Reporting by Jana Mlcochova; Editing by Michael Winfrey)
