* WHAT: Czech Feb retail sales, industry, trade; March CPI
* WHEN: Retail April 4; output, trade April 6; CPI April 11
REUTERS FORECASTS:
Czech February retail sales probably rose 3.9 percent from a
year earlier, according to the median estimate of 17 analysts
polled, slowing after a 6.8 percent rise in January.
Industrial output growth eased in February to 13.7 percent
year-on-year, from 16.9 percent in January, the poll forecast.
The Czech Republic is expected to report a trade surplus of
15.0 billion crowns ($862.6 million) in February, down from a
15.7 billion crown surplus the previous month, according to the
median forecast of 13 analysts.
The statistics office will also release a separate trade
balance figure using a new methodology, as it did for January.
The new calculations exclude branding, or margins paid to
companies that are not Czech and are merely registered in the
country to pay value-added tax (VAT). []
Six analysts gave forecasts for this methodology, producing
a median estimate of a foreign trade deficit of 1.7 billion
crowns after a surplus of 0.6 billion crowns in January.
The annual inflation rate was seen holding at 1.8 percent in
March, with consumer prices rising 0.2 percent on the month
after a 0.1 percent monthly increase in February.
All forecasts are on Reuters pages <ECONCZ> and in TABLE
[]
FACTORS TO WATCH:
Rising industrial output and exports have driven the Czech
economic recovery, while a lack of domestic demand has kept
inflationary pressures mostly in check. The central bank has
maintained interest rates at record lows since May last year.
Following a surprise jump in January retail sales, which
analysts mostly attributed to post-holiday sales and corporate
demand for cars, milder growth is seen in the coming months as
consumer confidence is expected to stay weak amid government
spending cuts.
Manufacturing surveys remain well into positive territory,
with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in February just off a
record high, boding well for output ahead and foreign orders.
Manufacturing activity in Germany, the main Czech trade
partner, is still strong and the economy looks set to continue
to grow.
"For the remainder of the year, we expect Germany to remain
supportive for Czech exports. Moreover, consumer demand is
likely to remain subdued," said Jaromir Sindel, chief economist
at Citibank in Prague.
Rising food and fuel prices are seen as the main drivers of
inflation. However, consumer price inflation has undershot
market and central bank expectations in the first two months of
2011, and is below the bank's 2 percent inflation target.
Rate setters voted 5-1 at a March 24 meeting to keep the key
interest rate unchanged at 0.75 percent, saying risks to
underlying inflation were balanced, but that a planned tax hike
and global factors could drive up headline inflation.
[]
The crown <EURCZK=> has dropped half a percent since then on
the unwinding of some positions by traders who had bet the Czech
Republic would follow Hungary and Poland and tighten monetary
policy. Markets mostly price in a first Czech rate rise in the
middle of the year.
Czech stats office website: www.czso.cz
Czech labour and social affairs ministry www.mpsv.cz
All Czech economic data: <ECONALLCZ>
Central and Eastern Europe market report: []
(Reporting by Mirka Krufova and Jason Hovet; Editing by Susan
Fenton)
