* F'casts for CEE currencies a tad firmer than a month ago
* Zloty seen in lead, firming some 5 pct in next 12 months
* Forint seen retreating, expected at 270/EUR in 12 months
By Sandor Peto
BUDAPEST, Feb 2 (Reuters) - Economic growth and rising
interest rates are expected to boost Poland's zloty by 5 percent
in the next 12 months, leading a rise in central European
currencies, a Reuters poll of 40 analysts showed on Wednesday.
The median forecasts for their euro crosses show slightly
stronger levels in the Jan. 28-Feb. 2 poll than in a survey a
month ago as concern over the euro zone debt crisis has eased
somewhat and economic recovery is gaining pace in the region.
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The Czech crown <EURCZK=> and the Hungarian forint
<EURHUF=>, however, are seen retreating in the next few months.
The two currencies have led regional gains so far this year,
firming by 3-4 percent against the euro.
The crown has tested the 24 level near 27-month highs and
the forint got near 268.70 which borders nine-month-high
territory.
While dealers say the currencies can cross those key levels
any time, analysts expect the crown weaker at 24.30 on the one-
and three-month horizon, even though they forecast a rise to
23.9 in the next 12 months.
The forint is expected to retreat to 272.93 against the euro
by the end of this month and to 275 by July, but it could firm
to 270 in 12 months. A month ago the 12-month consensus was 272.
The analysts projected an unbroken gradual firming of the
zloty <EURPLN=> to 3.9 versus the euro in one month, 3.87 in
three months, 3.82 in six months and 3.75 in 12 months.
Economists still project that the Romanian leu <EURRON=>
will firm by about 1 percent in the next 12 months to 4.2.
RATE INCREASES TO HELP ZLOTY
Hopes that Hungary will announce fiscal reforms soon have
lifted the country's markets in the past weeks, but the reversal
of earlier regional underweight positions is seen providing
Hungarian assets with only a temporary cushion. []
"The difference between the forint and the zloty is that in
Hungary the composition of the Monetary Council will change and
turn more dovish, while in Poland rate increases are expected
and the economy is roaring ahead," said Janos Samu of Concorde.
Hungary's central bank (NBH) was first in the region to
start to reverse rate cuts delivered during the global crisis,
raising its base rate by a total of 75 basis points in the past
three months to fight inflation.
Most analysts believe that the base rate has reached the
peak at 6 percent as the NBH is expected to turn more dovish by
March when the mandates of four rate-setters expire.
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Poland's central bank, which raised its key rate by 25 basis
points last month to 3.75 percent, is expected to tighten policy
further, giving support to the currency.
"The zloty should also benefit from further inflow of
foreign capital as portfolio investments," said Michal Fronc of
TMS Brokers.
While market jitters are possible in coming months if euro
zone debt concerns rise again, the crown, the region's safe
haven currency, will appreciate more slowly than the zloty.
"While the koruna (crown) is expected to remain mostly
resilient to euro zone-related problems, the dovish stance of
the local MPC (central bank) should prevent stronger
appreciation in Q1," said Peter Poplawski of BGZ Bank.
For data please click on <CEEFXPOLL01>
For more analyst comments on CEE currencies please click on
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(Reporting by Sandor Peto; Editing by Susan Fenton)
