*WHAT: Czech, Slovak fourth quarter, full-year GDP
*WHEN: February 15 at 9.00 a.m. (0800GMT)
*REUTERS FORECAST: Czech fourth quarter gross domestic
product median rise of 0.8 percent q/q versus 1.0 percent in Q3,
3.2 percent yr/yr versus 2.8 percent in Q3. Full-year 2010 Czech
GDP median rise of 2.3 percent versus a drop of 4.0 percent in
2009.
Sixteen analysts took part in the survey and the estimates
for the quarterly figure ranged from 0.4 percent to 4.6 percent.
The annual rise estimates ranged from 2.8 percent to 5.0 percent
and the full year estimates were from 2.2 percent to 2.8
percent.
Slovak fourth quarter gross domestic product median rise of
3.5 percent rise yr/yr versus 3.8 percent in Q3. Full-year 2010
GDP median growth of 4.1 percent versus a drop of 4.7 percent in
2009.
Six analysts took part in the survey and the estimates for
the fourth quarter number ranged from 3.2 percent to 4.1
percent. Full year estimates were from 3.9 percent to 4.2
percent.
FACTORS TO WATCH: Exports, investments and restocking drove
growth both in the Czech Republic and Slovakia in the fourth
quarter, but weak consumption was a drag.
Factory output and exports benefited from a boom in Germany,
the largest single export market for both the export-oriented
economies.
Czech GDP was seen rising year on year in the period above
the third quarter levels.
"Strong exports fuelled the (strong) performance of (Czech)
industrial output through the fourth quarter of 2010 and it
should be also reflected in strong GDP figures," said Vojtech
Benda, senior analyst at ING Commercial Banking.
"On the other hand, the contribution from services remains
still subdued, with slight negative contribution to GDP growth."
Final consumption remained a brake both from the view of
households and the government as unemployment rose and
governments in both countries cut spending, analysts said.
Czech retail sales, the gauge of households' propensity to
spend, were a great disappointment in December as they
contracted instead of growing as expected by markets.
Czech January inflation, lacking demand-led pressures, was
far below expectations, sending the crown to a week's low, and
depressing bond yields and money market rates as investors
unwound rate hike bets.
The central bank expects full year GDP at 2.3 percent and
the Finance Ministry sees it at 2.5 percent.
In Slovakia, trade and factory output outperformed market
expectations in the last three months of the last year,
propelled by German orders and investment.
MARKET REACTION: Strong Czech GDP reading could boost market
expectations for an early rise in official interest rates
although bets on rise have thinned after the surprisingly weak
January CPI data.
For Czech GDP estimates table ............ []
For Slovak GDP estimates table ...........[]
The Czech Statistics bureau website ........ www.czso.cz
The Slovak Statistics bureau website... www.statistics.sk
All Czech economic data: <ECONALLCZ>
All Slovak economic data: <ECONALLSK>
Central and Eastern Europe market report: []
(Reporting by Mirka Krufova and Petra Kovacova, writing by
Jana Mlcochova)
