* Crude oil sees first decline in four days
* IMF to cut global growth forecast further to 1-1.5 pct
* Dollar climbs vs euro, pressuring commodities
(Updates throughout, changes dateline from PERTH)
By Christopher Johnson
LONDON, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Oil fell by around $1 towards $45
on Monday as forecasts of a deepening global economic downturn
and a stronger dollar outweighed evidence that OPEC oil
producers are reducing output.
An International Monetary Fund official said on Sunday the
agency would cut its 2009 global growth forecast again, this
time to between 1-1.5 percent from a previous estimate of 2.2
percent, as economic conditions deteriorate. []
Oil demand is closely tied to economic growth and many
economists now predict a fall in energy use this year as
recession hits most of the largest developed economies.
U.S. light crude for March delivery <CLc1> fell $1.22 to a
low of $45.25 before recovering to around $45.50 by 0844 GMT.
The contract rose $2.80, or 6.41 percent, to $46.47 a barrel on
Friday, crowning a rebound in the front-month contract from
below $33 a barrel a week ago.
London Brent crude <LCOc1> slipped $1.00 to $47.37.
"The market is correcting from the sharp rally on Friday,"
said Christopher Bellew, broker at Bache Commodities in London.
"Essentially the market is range-bound with poor demand being
balanced by OPEC production cuts."
The market was fairly thin in Asian trading, due to holidays
that shut most of the region's big trading centres except Japan,
but was expected to pick up later.
DOLLAR
Analysts said oil was also again moving inversely to the
dollar, which rose nearly 1 percent against the euro to almost
the six-week high it hit on Friday as weak British and euro zone
data led investors to take refuge in the greenback. []
The main driver of oil's sharp $2 rally on Friday was
evidence of OPEC making good on most of its pledged 2.2 million
barrel a day (bpd) production cut this month, with oil
consultant Petrologistics estimating OPEC output would fall by
1.55 million barrels per day in January. []
But worries about the health of the global economy and its
impact on world energy demand halted the rally.
Announcing the forthcoming cut in the IMF's growth forecast,
Axel Bertuch-Samuels, deputy director of the IMF's monetary and
capital markets department, told Reuters on Sunday that 2009
would be enormously challenging for the world's economy.
"Global economic prospects have deteriorated in recent
months, consumer and business confidence have dropped to levels
that we have not seen in decades, and activity too has dropped
sharply," he said.
Dismal economic data released last week also signalled the
deepening of the global economic downturn, with British data
confirming the first UK recession since 1991, while Spanish
unemployment surged to a nine-year high. []
Hope that government spending will revive economies has been
tempered by fears that the situation may be worse than imagined.
On Sunday, President Barack Obama's top economic adviser
would not rule out the possibility that more money may be needed
to stabilise the U.S. financial system as a deep recession
increases banks' losses. []
Crude oil speculators on the New York Mercantile Exchange
trimmed new long positions in the week to Jan. 20, according to
U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. []
(Reporting by Peg Mackey and Christopher Johnson in London
and Fayen Wong in Perth; editing by Anthony Barker)
