* FX mixed, Moody's statement on Portugal weighs on region
* Czech crown touch weaker ahead of no-confidence vote
* Poland's MPC starts two-day meeting
(Adds fixed income)
WARSAW, Dec 21 (Reuters) - Central European currencies were
little changed on Tuesday, pressured by a rating agency warning
on Portugal and with the Czech crown virtually flat ahead of a
no-confidence vote on the government due later in the day.
News that Moody's put Portugal's ratings on review for a
possible downgrade weighed as the euro -- the CEE region's main
reference currency -- fell to around $1.3144. []
The Czech vote had been seen as a non-event because the
three-party coalition enjoys a safe majority in parliament, but
a decision by junior coalition party Public Affairs late on
Monday to leave cabinet talks stoked uncertainty.
[]
"The move poses a potential risk for more weakening of the
crown, but we can only hope that the smallest ruling party
eventually will come back and support the government," said
Elisabeth Andreew, FX analyst at Nordea.
The crown <EURCZK=>, seen as the region's safe haven, has
been weakening since the start of November and hovered around
its five-month-low at 25.225 by 1004 GMT, a touch higher
compared to Monday's closing level.
The Czech vote follows a similar event in Romania, where
Prime Minister Emil Boc's fragile coalition survived its third
no-confidence vote on Monday, enabling it to press on with
reforms to keep an IMF-led 20-billion-euro bailout on track.
[]
The leu <EURRON=> was flat against the euro on Tuesday.
RATES ON HOLD
Other currencies were little changed, with the Polish zloty
<EURCZK=> moving around previous closing levels. The central
bank's Monetary Policy Council (MPC) started a two-day meeting
on Tuesday with a decision on interest rates due on Wednesday.
Analysts polled by Reuters expect the 10-strong MPC to keep
interest rates on hold for the 18th consecutive month, but the
bank is seen raising borrowing costs in the first quarter of
2011.
Poland's central bank also releases net inflation data at
1300 GMT.
"If core inflation is above (the forecast) 1.2 percent, the
market is likely to start speculating about the possibility of a
rate hike already in December," said Thulan Nguyen, FX analyst
at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.
"That could give the zloty a temporary boost."
Hungary's forint <EURHUF=> was some 0.3 percent stronger
after the country's central bank raised rates for the second
time in two months on Monday, to 5.75 percent, to defend its
inflation target. []
The bond markets were quiet across the region with investors
awaiting Hungary's debt issuance plan <HUISSUE> for the next
year, due to be published at 1030 GMT.
--------------------------MARKET SNAPSHOT--------------------
Currency Latest Previous Local Local
close currency currency
change change
today in 2010
Czech crown <EURCZK=> 25.225 25.243 +0.07% +4.33%
Polish zloty <EURPLN=> 3.993 3.998 +0.13% +2.78%
Hungarian forint <EURHUF=> 275.75 276.5 +0.27% -1.96%
Croatian kuna <EURHRK=> 7.382 7.383 +0.01% -0.99%
Romanian leu <EURRON=> 4.289 4.289 0% -1.2%
Serbian dinar <EURRSD=> 106.43 106.44 +0.01% -9.91%
Yield Spreads
Czech treasury bonds <0#CZBMK=>
2-yr T-bond CZ2YT=RR -9 basis points to 74bps over bmk*
7-yr T-bond CZ7YT=RR +1 basis points to +78bps over bmk*
10-yr T-bond CZ9YT=RR +4 basis points to +91bps over bmk*
Polish treasury bonds <0#PLBMK=>
2-yr T-bond PL2YT=RR -1 basis points to +364bps over bmk*
5-yr T-bond PL5YT=RR +3 basis points to +346bps over bmk*
10-yr T-bond PL10YT=RR +3 basis points to +301bps over bmk*
The P
Hungarian treasury bonds <0#HUBMK=>
3-yr T-bond HU3YT=RR +2 basis points to +646bps over bmk*
5-yr T-bond HU5YT=RR +2 basis points to +580bps over bmk*
10-yr T-bond HU10YT=RR +2 basis points to +493bps over bmk*
*Benchmark is German bond equivalent.
All data taken from Reuters at 1104 CET.
Currency percent change calculated from the daily domestic
close at 1600 GMT.
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(Reporting by Reuters bureaus, Writing by Dagmara Leszkowicz;
Editing by John Stonestreet and Susan Fenton)