INSTANT VIEW 2-Czech Sept output, retail, trade above fcasts

                                
 PRAGUE, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Czech industrial output rose above
forecast in September, driven by foreign orders, and retail
sales also beat expectations, data showed on Monday.
                                
 Czech industry expanded by 12.2 percent in September versus
a 12.1 percent drop a year earlier, and above expectations for a
10.7 percent rise. In August industry grew by 12.9 percent.
                                
 Retail sales rose by 3.5 percent year-on-year in September,
above forecast for annual growth of 2.0 percent.
                                
 Data also showed foreign trade posted a 12.4 billion crown
surplus in September, above analysts' forecast for an 8.7
billion surplus.
                                
 Exports rose 17.7 percent year-on-year, the eleventh rise in
a row. Imports grew by 21.8 percent, a ninth consecutive rise.
                                
 Separate data showed construction output fell 7.3 percent
year-on-year in September, after a 2.1 percent decline in
August.
                                
 A Labour Ministry data showed the unemployment rate was 8.5
percent in October, same as in September and above forecasts for
a drop to 8.3 percent.
                                
  
**************************************************************
KEY POINTS:
(change in percent)      Sept        Aug           Sept fcast
 RETAIL SALES (y/y)      3.5         2.8              2.0

INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT        Sept        Aug           Sept fcast
 Real pct change y/y    12.2         12.9            10.7
 Industrial sales       14.9         14.4             n/a

FOREIGN TRADE
 (in bln CZK)            Sept        Aug           Sept fcast
 balance                 12.35       0.77             8.7
(nominal y/y change in pct)
 exports                17.7        23.0              21.0
 imports                21.8        30.1              28.3

 Details of Sept retail sales data...............[ID:nPRA005314]
 Details of Sept industrial output data..........[ID:nPRA005315]
 Details of Sept foreign trade data..............[ID:nPRG004482]

 
COMMENTARY:
MIROSLAV FRAYER, ANALYST, KOMERCNI BANKA
                                
 "The figures were quite good because foreign trade,
industrial and retail data were higher than expected. But the
unemployment rate was a disappointment."
                                
 "These figures from the real economy are a result of quite
good figures out of Germany, but I wonder what will be further.
On Friday, German industrial orders (data) was also a
disappoint, and maybe can indicate a slowdown in economic
activity. This could have negative impact on the Czech economy,
as well."
                                
 "I think we can expect some slowdown in economic activity in
the following months. It will not be a recession, only a
slowdown."

 DETAILS:
 INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT - Industrial output rose 12.2 percent year on
year in September, versus 12.9 percent in August.
                                
 - Overall new orders rose 14.6 percent year-on-year, and new
orders from abroad increased by 16.3 percent.
                                
 - Orders grew mainly thanks to a 27.1 percent rise in orders
for computers and electronics.
                                
 
 FOREIGN TRADE - The trade balance surplus rose sharply to 12.35
billion crowns in September from 0.77 billion in August as
exports rose by 17.7 percent.
                                
 - Imports, which grew by 21.8 percent, outpaced exports for
the seventh month running.
                                
 - In euro terms, imports rose by 25.3 percent, exports rose
by 21.0 percent.
                                
 - Trade balance was worse by 4.5 billion crowns than a year
ago, due to a 4.9 billion crown deterioration in machinery
balance and 3 billion worsening of the minerals deficit.
                                
 - Overall imports of machinery and vehicles rose 31.0
percent.

 RETAIL SALES - The headline, unadjusted figure includes retail
sales plus car sales and repairs, as well as fuel sales.
                                
 - Seasonally-adjusted retail sales including fuels and cars
rose by a real 0.6 percent month-on-month, and rose by 3.0
percent year-on-year in September.
                                
 
 BACKGROUND:
- Market expectations before release             [ID:nLDE6A21CM]
- Slovak August trade figures                    [ID:nLDE69B0EH]
- Sept consumer inflation       [ID:nPRA005281] [ID:nLDE69A08WW]
- August industrial output                       [ID:nLDE69605P]
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision......[ID:nPRA005309]
                                
              [ID:nLDE6A31FW] [ID:nPRG004479] [ID:nLDE6A31R0]

- For further details on September retail sales, industrial
output and foreign trade data and other past data, Reuters 3000
Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical Bureau's website:
                                
 http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-vzo

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 (Reporting by Jana Mlcochova)