PRAGUE, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Czech industrial output rose above
forecast in September, driven by foreign orders, and retail
sales also beat expectations, giving positive signs for gross
domestic output data due out on Friday, data showed on Monday.
Czech industry expanded by 12.2 percent in September versus
a 12.1 percent drop a year earlier, and above expectations for a
10.7 percent rise. In August industry grew by 12.9 percent.
Retail sales rose by 3.5 percent year-on-year in September,
above forecast for annual growth of 2.0 percent.
Data also showed foreign trade posted a 12.4 billion crown
surplus in September, above analysts' forecast for an 8.7
billion surplus.
Exports rose 17.7 percent year-on-year, the eleventh rise in
a row. Imports grew by 21.8 percent, a ninth consecutive rise.
Separate data showed construction output fell 7.3 percent
year-on-year in September, after a 2.1 percent decline in
August.
Labour Ministry data showed the unemployment rate was 8.5
percent in October, same as in September and above forecasts for
a drop to 8.3 percent.
**************************************************************
KEY POINTS:
(change in percent) Sept Aug Sept fcast
RETAIL SALES (y/y) 3.5 2.8 2.0
INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT Sept Aug Sept fcast
Real pct change y/y 12.2 12.9 10.7
Industrial sales 14.9 14.4 n/a
FOREIGN TRADE
(in bln CZK) Sept Aug Sept fcast
balance 12.35 0.77 8.7
(nominal y/y change in pct)
exports 17.7 23.0 21.0
imports 21.8 30.1 28.3
Details of Sept retail sales data...............[]
Details of Sept industrial output data..........[]
Details of Sept foreign trade data..............[]
COMMENTARY:
PAVEL SOBISEK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, UNICREDIT, PRAGUE
"Unemployment was also above forecasts, although on one hand
the economy undoubtedly remained strong from the demand point of
view, on the other we need to look into more detail what is
behind the deviation in the unemployment forecast.
"i think nothing unexpected is happening in the economy and
the fact we have a few stronger figures is not changing the
overall picture of its condition."
PETR DUFEK, ANALYST, CSOB
"Unemployment stayed at the same level while markets
expected a seasonal decline."
"It is showing that the recovery of the economy is not so
strong as indicated by previous data from the labour market."
"Unemployment is on the same level as last year on October."
"In the coming months we expect a seasonal rise moderately
above 9 percent."
"Retail sales grew mainly thanks to car sales while fuel
sales were weaker. The good result in the automotive sector is
thanks to favourable prices which is however a short-term
factor."
"We expect weaker numbers by the end of the year mainly
because consumers are concerned about the next year (due to
fiscal retrenchment)."
MICHAL BROZKA, ECONOMIC RESEARCH, RAIFFEISENBANK
"Retail sales rose faster than we had expected which on its
own does not change much in our perception of the economic
development.
"We expect retail sales (growth) to stay around 1 percent in
real terms this year, which will be thanks to considerable
discounts by retailers."
MIROSLAV FRAYER, ANALYST, KOMERCNI BANKA
"The figures were quite good because foreign trade,
industrial and retail data were higher than expected. But the
unemployment rate was a disappointment."
"These figures from the real economy are a result of quite
good figures out of Germany, but I wonder what will be further.
On Friday, German industrial orders (data) was also a
disappointment, and maybe can indicate a slowdown in economic
activity. This could have negative impact on the Czech economy,
as well."
"I think we can expect some slowdown in economic activity in
the following months. It will not be a recession, only a
slowdown."
MARKET REACTION:
The Czech crown <EURCZK=> was flat after the data at 24.575
to the euro.
DETAILS:
INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT - Industrial output rose 12.2 percent year on
year in September, versus 12.9 percent in August.
- Overall new orders rose 14.6 percent year-on-year, and new
orders from abroad increased by 16.3 percent.
- Orders grew mainly thanks to a 27.1 percent rise in orders
for computers and electronics.
FOREIGN TRADE - The trade balance surplus rose sharply to 12.35
billion crowns in September from 0.77 billion in August as
exports rose by 17.7 percent.
- Imports, which grew by 21.8 percent, outpaced exports for
the seventh month running.
- In euro terms, imports rose by 25.3 percent, exports rose
by 21.0 percent.
- Trade balance was worse by 4.5 billion crowns than a year
ago, due to a 4.9 billion crown deterioration in machinery
balance and 3 billion worsening of the minerals deficit.
- Overall imports of machinery and vehicles rose 31.0
percent.
RETAIL SALES - The headline, unadjusted figure includes retail
sales plus car sales and repairs, as well as fuel sales.
- Seasonally-adjusted retail sales including fuels and cars
rose by a real 0.6 percent month-on-month, and rose by 3.0
percent year-on-year in September.
BACKGROUND:
- Market expectations before release []
- Slovak August trade figures []
- Sept consumer inflation [] []
- August industrial output []
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision......[]
[] [] []
- For further details on September retail sales, industrial
output and foreign trade data and other past data, Reuters 3000
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(Reporting by Jana Mlcochova)
