INSTANT VIEW 3-Czech Jan retail sales rise far above fcast

                                
 PRAGUE, March 16 (Reuters) - Czech retail sales rose 6.8
percent year-on-year in January, well above market expectations
for 2.5 percent growth, data showed on Wednesday.
                                
 Analysts said the data was probably driven by consumers
delaying Christmas shopping to take advantage of post-holiday
sales. They also said a 19.2 percent jump in car sales was
largely due to corporate purchases and did not indicate a sudden
jump in household demand.
                                
 But economists added that the data could add support to rate
hike advocates on the central bank's governing board who have
been pointing to concerns over demand-pull inflation pressures.
 
****************************************************************
                                
KEY POINTS:
(change in percent)        Jan        Dec        Jan forecast
RETAIL SALES (y/y)         6.8       -0.2          2.5
 
 Details of Jan retail sales data................[ID:nPRA005498]

                                
 COMMENTARY:
                                
 RADOMIR JAC, CHEIF ANALYST, GENERALI PPF ASSET MANAGEMENT
                                
 "Czech retail sales delivered a positive surprise in
January, after a disappointing fall seen in December." 
                                
 "This really indicates that the Czech consumer was waiting
with "Christmas-shopping" for seasonal discounts and that a
large portion of the shopping was thus realized only in
January."
                                
 "While household consumption in final quarter of 2010 was
disappointingly weak, as recently shown also by GDP data, the
start of 2011 seems to be healthier than expected. Note also
that unemployment data came slightly lower than expected." 
                                
 "All in all, retail sales data is unlikely to become a key
driver of market sentiment, but the January statistics support
the view that Czech central bank may seriously debate an
interest rate hike (by 25bp) in the second quarter of the year,
as commodity prices are pointing to upside risk as regards the
inflation outlook." 
                                
 
                                
 PETR DUFEK, HEAD OF MACROECONOMICS ANALYSIS DEPT, CSOB
                                
 "Retail sales were driven by cars, which include sales to
corporations, so we cannot speak about a steep rise in household
consumption. Adjusted for cars and fuels, retails sales rose by
4.5 percent."
                                
 "Consumers were lured to shops by post-Christmas sales,
which we can see namely in sales of electronics and household
equipment, clothing and holiday goods."
                                
 "It is impossible to expect that the numbers will develop in
the same way in the coming months... The financial situation of
households is not going to improve this year significantly."
                                
 "Domestic demand will continue to be tame and there is no
threat of demand-pull inflation pressures. The central bank does
not have to rush with raising interest rates."
                                
 
                                
 DAVID MAREK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, PATRIA FINANCE
                                
 "Retails sales were a positive surprise and it is showing
that in the beginning of the year demand was in a good
condition."
                                
 "It was helped significantly by car sales, which are
volatile and can significantly influence the statistics, but
despite that, the result is positive."
                                
 "I think this plays into the hand of the central bank hawks
who can use this data as an argument that there is a reason to
be concerned over demand-pull inflation pressures or the
secondary cost shocks coming from commodity prices."
                                
 "After the previous data that tamed expectations for a quick
monetary policy tightening, these data have had the exactly
opposite effect."
                                
 
                                
 DETAILS
                                
 - The headline, unadjusted figure includes retail sales plus
car sales and repairs, as well as fuel sales.
- Seasonally-adjusted retail sales including sales and
maintenance of cars rose by a real 4.8 percent month-on-month.
- Year on year, working-day-adjusted retail sales rose 5.1
percent in January.
- Seasonally adjusted sales including fuels retail sales rose
3.1 percent month on month and year on year, working-day
adjusted retail sales rose 1.5 percent.

 BACKGROUND:
- February consumer inflation    [ID:nPRG004780] [ID:nLDE728080]
- January industrial output                      [ID:nLDE7290SA]
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision......[ID:nPRA005440]
 [ID:nPRG004706] [ID:nLDE71A07I] [ID:nLDE712157] [ID:nPRG004674]
                                
                                              [ID:nLDE6A321Y]

LINKS:
- For further details on January retail sales and past data,
Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical
Bureau's website:
                                
 http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-slu

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 (Writing by Jana Mlcochova)