* UK adds to strong manufacturing data around the world
* Natural disasters spur commodities rally
* Coming Up: API weekly oil inventory report; 2130 GMT
(Adds comments, updates prices)
Dmitry Zhdannikov
LONDON, Jan 4 (Reuters) - Oil held near its highest prices
in more than two years in volatile trade on Tuesday, due to
accelerating manufacturing activity in developed economies and
expectations that U.S. crude inventories will keep falling.
U.S. crude for February <CLc1> was down 18 cents to $91.37 a
barrel at 1424 GMT on Tuesday after earlier hitting a peak of
$92.58, the highest intraday price since early October 2008.
ICE Brent <LCOc1> was up 32 cents at $95.15, having topped
$96 on Monday for the first time since 2008.
"We expect oil demand to remain strong in 2011. Growth rates
will slow down, but in terms of absolute levels we still expect
a record year," said Amrita Sen of Barclays Capital, adding that
oil prices might hit $100 a barrel before April.
"We also expect concerns about non-OPEC supplies to
resurface this year," she added.
Prices had rallied on Monday on accelerating manufacturing
activity in industrial economies and on icy weather and were up
in early trade on Tuesday although they began to slide after
1330 GMT as the dollar strengthened against other currencies.
"With the EU showing signs of inflation and slower growth,
the dollar is taking its toll on the oil market," said Carl
Larry from Oil Outlooks.
"...And we are seeing more oil companies trying to take
advantage here and hedge future production. They see the stall
up at $92 and think this is a good opportunity to put some
hedges in," he added.
Manufacturing in the United States and Europe accelerated in
December, while growth in China and India slowed to more
sustainable levels in another boost for the global economic
outlook. []
On Tuesday, a report showed that British manufacturing
activity expanded at its fastest pace in over 16 years in
December, above expectations. []
"It appears easily possible that the magical three-digit
threshold ($100 per barrel) falls in the coming weeks," analysts
at JBC Energy broker said in a note on Tuesday.
U.S. INVENTORIES
Crude oil inventories in the United States, the world's top
consumer, probably fell for the fifth time in a row last week,
down by 1.7 million barrels, a Reuters poll showed [],
while stockpiles of gasoline and distillates probably rose.
Refiners continued to use up more of their stored crude
supplies while holding off on imports to lower their year-end
taxes, analysts said.
<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
For a graphic on US crude stocks and oil price
http://r.reuters.com/keg64r
For an analysis and factbox on differences vs 2008 oil price
surge: [] []
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
Industry group American Petroleum Institute (API) will
release its inventory report on Tuesday at 2130 GMT, while the
U.S. Energy Information Administration will follow with
government statistics at 1530 GMT on Wednesday.
"Increasing demand for heating oil is helping to reduce the
inventory overhang," said Credit Suisse analysts including
Stefan Graber.
"However, this is likely to be temporary as heating oil
demand usually peaks around mid-January. While the short-term
technical trend and momentum indicators remain positive, we
think that ample OPEC spare production capacity is likely to cap
the upside."
In other markets, world stocks as measured by MSCI
<.MIWD00000PUS> were up nearly half a percent on the day, with
the emerging market sub-index <.MSCIEF> gaining 0.19 percent,
lifted by the optimism about the state of the world economy.
[]
The next big test for the U.S. economy comes on Friday when
the government will publish its December jobs report.
(Additional reporting by Alejandro Barbajosa in Singapore,
editing by Anthony Barker)
