INSTANT VIEW 3-Czech Dec retail sales down 2.9 pct

                                
 PRAGUE, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Czech retail sales dipped by 2.9
percent year-on-year in December, after a fall of 6.3 percent in
November, data showed on Tuesday.

****************************************************************
KEY POINTS:
(change in percent)        Dec      Nov         Dec forecast
RETAIL SALES (y/y)        -2.9     -6.3         -0.3

(Click on [ID:nPRA002376] for full table of December retail
sales)

- The headline, unadjusted figure includes car sales and
repairs, fuel sales and spending on a variety of consumer goods,
including foodstuffs.
- Seasonally-adjusted retail sales dipped by a real 0.5 percent
month-on-month and 4.6 percent year-on-year in December.
                                
 
                                
 RADOMIR JAC, CHIEF ANALYST, GENERALI PPF ASSET    
                                
 "Retail sales were gloomy indeed and also fourth quarter
data for services are showing contraction in most cases.
Actually, one has to ask where did Czech GDP growth, reported at
1 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter according to the
flash estimate, come from."
                                
 "With data showing contraction in exports, industry,
construction, retail sales and most of the service sectors, we
are going to see a GDP contraction in first half of 2009 and I
would not be surprised at all if we see negative revision of the
fourth quarter 2008 GDP flash estimate."
                                
 "The data as published today are negative news for the Czech
crown but I am not sure that people are looking at separate data
these days, as there is a wave of negative sentiment over the
whole region in general."
                                
 
                                
 MARTIN LOBOTKA, ANALYST, CESKA SPORITELNA
                                
"There have been layoffs in December already and the
expectations of households were deteriorating markedly.
                                
 "On the other hand the drop is not that steep as some have
expected. We expected minus 0.7 percent, so it is not such a
surprise and the trend is likely to continue."
                                
 
                                
 VOJTECH BENDA, SENIOR ECONOMIST, ING WHOLESALE, BANKING
                                
 "As concerns the retail figures, the good news is that
seasonally adjusted sales stagnated and did not fall further in
December, after a significant plunge two mothes earlier."
                                
 "The bad news is the retail sales will likely remain subdued
 in 1Q09 thanks to gradually declining employment and weak wage
growth."
                                
 
                                
 JAN VEJMELEK, HEAD OF ECONOMIC & STRATEGY RESEARCH, KOMERCNI
BANKA
                                
 "The December result in retail sales disappointed and fits
in a series of unfavourable data for the fourth quarter, which
according to our opinion can reflect in a flash estimate of GDP
for the fourth quarter downwards."
                                
 "A quickly depreciating crown curbs the scope for further
monetary easing despite the fact that consumer demand, as shown
in the retail sales, is very weak and generates no inflation
pressures."
                                
 
                                
 TOMAS VLK, ANALYST, PATRIA FINANCE                
                                
 "The drop is somewhat better than we had expected but it
still cannot be seen as a positive number. The negative
development in car sales was accompanied... by household
equipment and electronics.
                                
 "The data shows a drop in GDP in the fourth quarter. As for
the influence on interest rates, this number shows there is
still room for further easing although at the March session the
drop should be only moderate due to the weak crown."
                                
 
                                
 PAVEL SOBISEK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, UNICREDIT, PRAUGE
                                
 "It is a really depressing (figure) after October and
November showed year-on-year declines."
                                
 "Household consumption was probably negative year-on-year in
the fourth quarter. This does not bode well for the flash GDP
estimate showing 1 percent increase. After today's figure, I
believe that estimate will have to be revised downward."
                                
 
 BACKGROUND:
- January consumer inflation                        [ID:nL91361]
                                
                               [ID:nL9192673] [ID:nPRA002361]
- December industrial output figures              [ID:nLB300021]
                                
                               [ID:nPRA002366] [ID:nLB729502]
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision.........[ID:nL54762]
                                
               [ID:nL5536584] [ID:nPRA002354] [ID:nPRG001229]

LINKS:
- For further details on December retail sales and past data,
Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical
Bureau's website:
                                
 http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-slu

- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on       <ECONCZ>
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 (Reporting by Jana Mlcochova)