PRAGUE, Aug 13 (Reuters) - The Czech economy rose 0.8
percent over the previous three months in the second quarter,
just above analysts' forecast of a 0.7 percent rise, data showed
on Friday.
On a year-on-year basis, Czech gross domestic product
expanded 2.2 percent in real terms in the second quarter, the
Czech stats office said, exactly in line with expectations.
The statistics office did not release a breakdown of its
flash GDP estimate, but said the rise was mainly due to stronger
manufacturing. It said growth was also significant in the
transport and market service sectors.
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KEY POINTS:
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
(pct change) Q2/10 Q1/10 Fcast Q1
quarter/quarter 0.8 0.5 0.7
year/year 2.2 1.1 2.2
Details of Q1 GDP data..........................[]
- The Czech stats office will release full details on Sept. 8.
MARKET REACTION:
The Czech crown <EURCZK=> eased slightly to 24.745 to the
euro from 24.74.
COMMENTARY:
RADOMIR JAC, CHIEF ANALYST, GENERALI PPF ASSET MANAGEMENT
"The Czech economy was growing more or less in line with the
market expectation in the second quarter. However, annual growth
is 0.4 percentage points above the Czech National Bank
forecast."
"With no information about the structure of GDP on the
expenditure side we cannot make any deeper analysis and
conclusions about the developments. Actually, what we know about
flash GDP estimates from past is that they are usually revised,
so I do not think that the central bank will make any strong
conclusions from the data published today."
"Nevertheless, the indication that Czech economy accelerated
its quarter-to-quarter growth makes sense -- it is in line with
monthly data on industrial output and exports but even in line
with data on retail sales and unemployment."
"Net exports and inventories were most likely the key
drivers of the growth but I think that also gross fixed capital
creation may have recovered in Czech economy after the poor
first quarter when activity was hit by the bad weather."
"The stronger growth pace met market expectations and is
also in line with news we received this morning from Germany.
Actually, German data are fantastic and, if anything, they
suggest that a future revision of Czech second quarter GDP data
-- if it comes -- will be more likely in positive direction."
VOJTECH BENDA, SENIOR ECONOMIST, ING COMMERCIAL BANKING
"Due to the relatively bustling growth in industrial
production and a swift pace in the recovery of retail sales, I
expected slightly better numbers."
"But this result is satisfactory and means that the Czech
economy is accelerating. In the third quarter I expect about the
same pace, thanks to the positive development in the German
economy."
"But in the mid-term there is the risk of a possible
weakening of the U.S. and Asian economies."
BACKGROUND:
- For story on analysts' expectations before the data release,
double click on []
- Hungary's Q2 GDP []
- Poland's Q1 GDP []
LINKS:
- For further details on second quarter GDP and past data,
Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical
Bureau's Website:
http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-hdp
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
(Reporting by Jasonn Hovet)
