PRAGUE, Oct 7 (Reuters) - Czech manufacturing output
exceeded forecast in August while the trade surplus dropped on
machinery imports, suggesting a continued economic recovery,
Czech statistics office data showed on Thursday.
Separate retail sales data were broadly in line with
forecast, showing a mild rise.
Czech industry expanded by 12.9 percent in August versus a
9.4 percent drop a year earlier, and above expectations for an
8.0 percent rise.new orders showed strong growth, both domestic
and from abroad.
Retail sales rose by 2.8 percent year-on-year in August,
broadly in line with analysts' forecast for annual growth of 2.7
percent.
Data also showed foreign trade posted a 0.54 billion crown
surplus in August, much less than analysts' forecast for a 5.3
billion surplus.
Exports rose 23.0 percent year-on-year, the tenth rise in a
row. Imports grew by 30.1 percent, an eighth consecutive rise.
Separate data showed construction output fell 2.1 percent in
August, after a 4.5 percent decline in July.
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KEY POINTS:
(change in percent) Aug July Aug fcast
RETAIL SALES (y/y) 2.8 -1.0 2.7
INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT Aug July Aug fcast
Real pct change y/y 12.9 5.3 8.0
Industrial sales 14.4 7.8 n/a
FOREIGN TRADE
(in bln CZK) Aug July Aug fcast
balance 0.54 6.34 5.3
(nominal y/y change in pct)
exports 23.0 16.0 15.7
imports 30.1 20.5 19.9
Details of Aug retail sales data................[]
Details of Aug industrial output data...........[]
Details of Aug foreign trade data...............[]
DETAILS:
INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT - Industrial output rose 12.9 percent year
on year in August, versus 5.3 percent in July.
- Overall new orders rose 22.1 percent year-on-year, and new
orders from abroad increased by 20.6 percent.
- Orders grew mainly thanks to a 18.2 percent rise in orders
for vehicles.
FOREIGN TRADE - The trade balance surplus shrank sharply to
0.54 billon crowns as exports surged by 30 percent, the worst
result since December 2008.
- Imports outpaced exports for the sixth month running.
- In euro terms, imports rose by 34.5 percent, exports rose by
27.1 percent.
- Trade balance worse by 8.6 billion than a year ago, due to a
6.1 billion deterioration in machinery balance and 3 billion
worsening of the minerals deficit.
- Overall imports of machinery and vehicles rose 41.8 percent,
especially of electronics, computers and telecommunication
equipment.
RETAIL SALES - The headline, unadjusted figure includes
retail sales plus car sales and repairs, as well as fuel sales.
- Seasonally-adjusted retail sales including fuels and cars
dipped by a real 0.9 percent month-on-month, and rose by 1.1
percent year-on-year in August.
COMMENTARY:
MICHAL BROZKA, ANALYST, RAIFFEISENBANK
"Czech exports did not disappoint in August... Nonetheless,
what was a surprise in August was the significant acceleration
of imports. The pace of imports is outpacing exports for six
months in a row."
"The crown is not likely to show significant reaction to the
news, even when the worsening of the trade balance is an
argument for possible weakening of the crown in the short-term
horizon. The development on global markets, where we still see a
falling dollar and also a positive outlook on the central
European region, can impede a correction to weaker crown
levels."
RADOMIR JAC, CHIEF ANALYST, GENERALI PPF ASSET MANAGEMENT
"Czech industry reports quite fantastic results for August
