* Crown underperforms after data lag fcasts
* Leu steady, government shakeup effects eyed
* Poland cbank chief sees no clear inflation pressure
By Marton Dunai
BUDAPEST, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Emerging European currencies
opened slightly stronger on Monday as Friday's U.S. jobs data
kept markets optimistic, with the Czech crown underperforming
slightly after July retail sales and output lagged forecasts.
The crown <EURCZK=> added 0.1 percent by 0739 GMT, compared
to gains of 0.3 percent each in the Polish zloty <EURPLN=> and
the Hungarian forint <EURHUF=>.
Czech manufacturing output lagged forecasts in July, showing
a slowdown in growth, while retail sales dropped and the trade
surplus shrank. []
"Czech data releases for July output and trade came in
slightly below the market expectations but I do not see them as
a really negative surprise," Generali analyst Radomir Jac said.
"July was facing negative calendar effect (two less working
days year-on-year) and such a factor simply has an adverse
impact on industrial output, exports or retail sales."
Dealers said the day would likely see subdued trading as
markets remained closed for a holiday in the U.S., and a
positive effect from Friday's U.S. jobs data would boost risk
appetite, benefitting the euro and emerging currencies alike.
"This week we expect the PLN and the CZK to hold onto gains
whilst we see risk reward is increasing on EUR/HUF shorts
following a major underperformance," UniCredit said in a morning
note to clients.
The Romanian leu <EURRON=> was up 0.2 percent after a major
government reshuffle last week that sent six cabinet ministers
packing.
"The reshuffle could bring some uncertainty, causing a
possible increase in rates, CDS and depreciation pressures on
the RON, but we believe this should be a short-term phenomenon,"
UniCredit said.
The zloty was steady after weekend comments from National
Bank of Poland Governor Marek Belka, who said the bank remained
in a wait-and-see mode regarding rates, and added he saw no
clear sign of inflationary pressures. []
"So far we had had (Belka) down as a moderate hawk,"
Commerzbank wrote in a note. "If he plays down the risks of
inflation that means that a majority for a rapid rate rise in
the MPC will be difficult to obtain."
Markets will also keep an eye on Hungary, where Prime
Minister Viktor Orban reiterated over the weekend that the
country would not go back to the IMF's negotiating table.
[]
Morgan Stanley said in a research note that Hungary could
benefit from a newly designed IMF facility.
"We think that the newly established Precautionary Credit
Line potentially represents another anchor for Hungary, should
the authorities request it," Morgan Stanley said.
National Bank of Hungary Vice Governor Ferenc Karvalits said
on Saturday that Hungary may forego the IMF with a credible
economic programme. []
The central bank kept rates on hold at a record low of 5.25
percent on Aug. 23, and policymakers discussed a 25 basis point
hike as well as a 25 basis point cut in the interest rate.
--------------------------MARKET SNAPSHOT--------------------
Currency Latest Previous Local Local
close currency currency
change change
today in 2010
Czech crown <EURCZK=> 24.64 24.667 +0.11% +6.81%
Polish zloty <EURPLN=> 3.924 3.935 +0.28% +4.59%
Hungarian forint <EURHUF=> 283.11 284.04 +0.33% -4.51%
Croatian kuna <EURHRK=> 7.282 7.284 +0.03% +0.37%
Romanian leu <EURRON=> 4.265 4.274 +0.21% -0.65%
Serbian dinar <EURRSD=> 105.54 105.69 +0.14% -9.15%
All data taken from Reuters at 0939 CET.
Currency percent change calculated from the daily domestic
close at 1600 GMT.
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(Reporting by Reuters bureaus, Writing by Marton Dunai; Editing
by Toby Chopra)
