PRAGUE, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Seasonally adjusted Czech
economic growth unexpectedly picked up to 4.7 percent
year-on-year in the third quarter, data showed on Friday,
following 4.6 percent growth in the second quarter of 2008.
The Czech expansion lagged the boom in neighbour Slovakia,
which posted 7.1 percent growth from July to September. But it
outpaced regional laggard Hungary, which reported 0.8 percent
growth.
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KEY POINTS:
(pct change) Q3/08 Q2/08 Fcast Q3
year/year 4.7 4.6 3.8
- GDP up 1.0 percent quarter-on-quarter when adjusted for
seasonal factors and the difference in working days.
- Seasonally unadjusted growth was 4.7 percent year-on-year.
- The Czech crown slipped to 25.35 to the euro, from 25.25,
despite a quick initial jump immediately after the release.
COMMENTARY
PAVEL SOBISEK, ANANLYST, UNICREDIT
"The sold growth number corresponds to the recently
released, surprisingly strong performance of industry in
September and it indicates that retail sales to be released next
week were probably quite strong in September as well."
"However today's surprise changes nothing about the fact
that the Czech economy is heading for a significant slowdown."
"We shall see that in the fourth quarter when annual GDP
growth will weaken to 2 percent to 3 percent."
JIRI SKOP, ANALYST, KOMERCNI BANKA
"It's a surprising figure but there is still a big
uncertainty about inventories. In the second quarter it
decreased as companies cut imports and foreign demand weakened,
so maybe in the third quarter it's over and thus there is a
higher figure, but it's only just temporary."
"GDP will decrease in the coming quarters for sure."
RADOMIR JAC, GENERALI PPF ASSET MANAGEMENT
"It is a stronger result (than expected), but we have to
wait for the structure. The difference is most probably in
foreign trade, which is a typical source of surprise. The third
quarter is positive, but I do not think that we would have to
rewrite the future because of this."
"The slowdown in western Europe is obvious and certainly it
will show here. The CNB (central bank) definitely does not have
to hang its head that they cut interest rates by 75 basis points
at their last meeting."
DAVID MAREK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, PATRIA FINANCE
"It's a pleasant surprise in the flood of negative data from
the Czech Republic, the euro zone and the United States."
"Unfortunately the financial crisis erupted at the turn of
the fourth quarter, and fourth quarter results are going to be
significantly worse."
BACKGROUND:
- For story on analysts' expectations before the data release,
double click on [] []
- Slovak Q3 GDP []
- Poland's Q2 GDP []
- Hungary's Q3 GDP []
LINKS:
- For further details on third quarter GDP and past data,
Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical
Bureau's Website:
http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-hdp
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
(Reporting by Jason Hovet
