* Gold strikes record, silver above $41 an ounce
* Gold is heading towards $1,518-technicals []
* Coming Up: France Feb industrial output; 0645 GMT
(Updates prices)
By Lewa Pardomuan
SINGAPORE, April 11 (Reuters) - Gold jumped to a record high
for a fifth straight trading day on Monday as the prospect of
more declines in the U.S. dollar drove investors into the
precious metal, with record exchange traded fund holdings
helping silver to its highest in more than three decades.
Heightened inflationary threats despite interest hikes by
China and the European Central Bank boosted gold's safe haven
appeal, while silver also attracted buying from investors
looking for a cheaper alternative to bullion. The gold-to-silver
ratio was at a 28-year low around 35.
Spot gold added $1.35 to $1,474.05 an ounce by 0539
GMT, having risen as high as $1,476.21 after the euro jumped to
a 15-month high against the U.S. dollar.
"I think there is a good chance that gold could hit $1,500
an ounce within this quarter. And perhaps even higher if we see
the weakness in the dollar persist and the Federal Reserve
continues their relatively easy monetary policy," said Ong Yi
Ling, investment analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore.
"This week, perhaps, the focus could be on whether the
Federal Reserve actually indicates to the market whether they
will be exiting their loose monetary policy, and whether they
display any hawkish signals."
Gold has gained more than 10 percent since late January when
political unrest began to flare in the Middle East and North
Africa.
But Monday's gains could be capped by a drop in energy
prices. Brent crude <LCOc1> fell below $126 after the African
Union said Muammar Gaddafi has accepted a roadmap to end the
civil war in Libya, including an immediate ceasefire in the
North African producer.
The metal is still far below its all-time inflation-adjusted
high, estimated at almost $2,500 an ounce set in 1980, an era of
Cold War tension, oil shocks and hyperinflation.
Spot gold is heading towards $1,518 per ounce based
on its wave pattern and a Fibonacci projection analysis,
according to Wang Tao, a Reuters market analyst for commodities
and energy technicals.
Spot silver rose as high as $41.93 an ounce, its
strongest in 31 years. IShares Silver Trust said its
holdings hit another record at 11,242.89 tonnes by April 8 from
11,192.80 tonnes on April 7.
The dollar dipped against a basket of currencies, weighed by
positive signs for investor risk-taking, and remained stuck near
last week's 16-month low versus a basket of major currencies.
The ECB raised rates by 25 basis points at its April meeting
last week and signalled it was ready to tighten further if
needed to check rising prices, but in contrast, both the Fed and
Bank of Japan are expected to keep interest rates near zero for
an extended period of time.
Janet Yellen, Fed Vice Chair, said on Saturday the U.S.
economy is still not strong enough for the Fed to start
reversing its extremely accommodative monetary policy.
[]
NY Fed chief William Dudley speaks later on Monday and
should also sound dovish.
U.S. gold futures for June rose $2.5 to $1,476.6 an
ounce after rising to a record at $1,478 an ounce.
The physical sector saw selling from Thailand and Indonesia,
but volume was light as holders waited for more gains in gold
prices before cashing in. Premiums were steady at between 70
cents and $1 an ounce to the spot London price in Singapore.
"Selling started last week, but I don't think the quantity
is huge. Thailand has quietened down a bit and I think because
people are still bullish about gold," said a dealer in
Singapore.
"My premiums are unchanged at 70 cents," he added.
Another Singapore-based dealer said selling picked up from
Indonesia on Monday, but it had little no impact on premiums.
"I sold my last deal into Thailand at 80 cents, so I presume
the premiums are about there," he added.
In other markets, the Nikkei edged lower after Citigroup
slashed its ratings on major automakers to "sell", although
buying of reconstruction-related stocks supported the market.
Precious metals prices 0539 GMT
Metal Last Change Pct chg YTD pct chg Turnover
Spot Gold 1474.05 1.35 +0.09 3.85
Spot Silver 41.79 0.94 +2.30 35.42
Spot Platinum 1808.99 5.24 +0.29 2.35
Spot Palladium 799.25 8.50 +1.07 -0.03
TOCOM Gold 4028.00 5.00 +0.12 8.02 52182
TOCOM Platinum 4952.00 6.00 +0.12 5.45 12291
TOCOM Silver 114.20 4.30 +3.91 40.99 2907
TOCOM Palladium 2192.00 28.00 +1.29 4.53 316
Euro/Dollar 1.4459
Dollar/Yen 84.76
TOCOM prices in yen per gram. Spot prices in $ per ounce.
(Reporting by Lewa Pardomuan; Editing by Michael Urquhart)
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