(Repeats story published on Jan 4)
* WHAT: Czech Nov. foreign trade and industrial output; Dec.
unemployment, CPI
* WHEN: Foreign trade data on Jan. 6, industrial output on
Jan. 7, CPI and unemployment on Jan. 10.
REUTERS FORECASTS:
All forecasts are on Reuters page <ECONCZ> and in table
[]
Industrial output in the Czech Republic probably jumped 11.3
percent in November from a year earlier, its strongest growth
since September and accelerating after a 6.9 percent rise in
October.
The trade surplus is seen falling to 12.0 billion crowns
($645.9 million) in November from 15.3 billion in October, but
the third highest level for November since 1996.
The unemployment rate probably rose to 9.2 percent in
December, its highest since April and up from 8.6 percent in
November.
The December consumer price index (CPI) probably gained 2.2
percent year-on-year versus a 2.0 percent rise in November. CPI
probably increased 0.4 percent month-on-month, doubling after a
0.2 percent rise in November.
FACTORS TO WATCH:
A higher number of working days at the end of last year
along with strong foreign demand are seen driving industrial
output in November.
Solid PMI data at the end of the year pointed to a marked
increase in foreign orders and signalled a further rise in new
business orders placed with Czech manufacturers. []
Optimism came mainly from developments in Germany, the Czech
Republic's largest single export market, where economic data
exceeded expectations at the end of last year.
Analyst Jaromir Sindel at Citibank said seasonal and
cyclical factors, along with an expected change in the
government unemployment benefit policy, were the reason for the
expected rise in unemployment.
December inflation at 2.2 percent would be exactly in line
with the central bank's forecast and a touch above the midpoint
of its target. CPI is driven by fuel prices, analysts said.
Demand-led price pressures were seen muted, meaning no need
for policy action by the central bank, which has kept its main
policy rate <CZCBIR=ECI> at a record low 0.75 percent since last
May.
MARKET REACTION:
The data is seen have little impact on financial markets,
which are much more sensitive to news on the euro zone debt
crisis as well as how the Czech government will proceed with
planned fiscal reforms.
Czech stats office website: www.czso.cz
Czech labour and social affairs ministry www.mpsv.cz
All Czech economic data: <ECONALLCZ>
Central and Eastern Europe market report: []
(Reporting by Mirka Krufova, writing by Jana Mlcochova; Editing
by Susan Fenton)
