PRAGUE, Jan 6 (Reuters) - The Czech Republic posted an 11.8
billion crown ($625 million) foreign trade surplus in November,
a touch smaller than analysts' forecasts in a Reuters poll, data
showed on Thursday.
Exports rose 21 percent year-on-year, the 13th rise in a
row. Imports grew by 24.1 percent, an 11th consecutive rise.
Analysts said the data signalled continued strong growth in
the last quarter of 2010 and the first quarter of 2011, with
high export growth benefitting from strong economic activity in
Germany and Slovakia, the Czechs' main trading partners.
Some economists said the jump in imports -- led largely by
machinery -- could partially be related to a solar power boom at
the end of 2010, a factor they said would fade since the
government took steps to weaken solar investment incentives.
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KEY POINTS:
(in bln CZK) Nov Oct Nov fcast
balance 11.84 14.54 (15.30) 12.0
(nominal y/y change in pct)
exports 21.0 17.1 (17.2) 19.3
imports 24.1 19.7 (19.4) 23.2
(For full table of trade data, click on........[])
COMMENTS:
DAVID MAREK, CHIEF ANALYST, PATRIA FINANCE
"The fast growing exports are due to the surprising dynamics
of the German economy and an acceleration in Slovakia, which are
the two main trading partners."
"On the side of imports, a moderate improvement in
investment activity is beginning to show, although consumer
demand remains relatively limited."
"One negative thing is high import prices and high commodity
prices, which raise the value of imports and have a negative
effect on the balance."
"The result shows that foreign trade should have a positive
contribution to GDP in the fourth quarter."
RADOMIR JAC, CHIEF ANALYST, GENERALI PPF ASSET MANAGEMENT
"Czech foreign trade data are positive: the overall trade
surplus came in close to expectations and both imports and
exports rose strongly in year-on-year terms -- the growth
dynamics are impressive especially when expressed in euro
terms."
"Worth noting is the strong year-on-year increase reported
in the case of exports of machinery and transport equipment.
Strong growth of both exports and imports implies that activity
in the Czech economy has been strengthening, although the
dynamics of imports are of course supported by a temporary
factor -- imports related to the solar boom."
"These imports will evaporate in 2011, which implies a
negative impact on investment expenditure in the Czech economy
in 2011, but this will at the same time have positive
consequences for overall foreign trade balance this year."
"All in all, strong growth of exports comes in line with
positive signals from business sentiment survey from both the
Czech Republic and Eurozone (particularly from Germany) and the
outlook remains positive also for first quarter of 2011. The
data release is certainly positive news for the Czech crown."
VOJTECH BENDA, SENIOR ANALYST, ING COMMERCIAL BANKING
"The data show economic growth did not lose steam in the
fourth quarter. We can expect relatively strong growth in GDP in
the fourth quarter. The growth in exports is another strong
signal for industrial production."
"It means the accumulation of stocks in the second and the
third quarters will not lead to a slowdown in industrial output.
The continuing growth in foreign demand is a signal that
industrial production will have sufficient impulses for growth
in the coming months."
"The strong growth in imports shows a recovery in domestic
demand, which means investment and private consumption."
PAVEL SOBISEK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, UNICREDIT, PRAGUE
"The surplus was quite in line with market expectations, so
no surprise there. What is interesting is the high dynamic on
both imports and exports, suggesting there is momentum in the
Czech economy both in terms of exports and domestic demand."
"This figure should not change anything (in the monetary
policy outlook)."
"Also, if someone is set to buy Czech crowns, he would
probably do it right now, so I can't rule out some reaction. It
is still more likely that we will see (no reaction) because it
is the prevailing pattern of the past couple of years."
DETAILS
- The October surplus was revised down to 14.54 billion crowns.
- Exports rose by 21.0 percent. Imports, which grew by 24.1
percent, outpaced exports for the 11th month running.
- In euro terms, exports rose by 26.8 percent, imports rose by
30.1 percent.
- The trade balance was 2.7 billion crowns lower than a year
earlier due to a 2.1 billion crown deterioration in the fossil
fuels deficit and a 1.4 billion worsening in chemicals trade.
- Overall machinery and vehicles exports rose 22.2 percent year
on year to 23.8 billion crowns.
BACKGROUND:
- Market expectations before release []
- Slovak Oct trade figures []
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision......[]
[]
- For further details on November foreign trade and other past
data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical
Bureau's website:
http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-vzo
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data click on []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
(Reporting by Jana Mlcochova; editing by Patrick Graham)
