INSTANT VIEW 3-Czech Sept industry PPI rises in line with fcast

...percent from 
August's 3.7 percent as analysts had forecast. 
**************************************************************** 
KEY POINTS: 
(change in percent)       Sept       Aug       Sept forecast 
 month/month              0.1       -0.1        0.1 
 year/year                4.0        3.7        4.0 
 
 (For full table of data...........................[nPRA001547]) 
 
- Separately, the statistical bureau said agriculture producer 
prices jumped 4.3 percent in September from August for a 18.1 
percent year-on-year increase, up from a 15.6 percent gain a 
month ago. 
 
COMMENTARY: 
    HELENA HORSKA, ANALYST, RAIFFEISENBANK, PRAGUE 
    "Industrial producer prices fail to surprise ... However, 
when one looks at the higher agriculture price growth it is 
clear that food prices will rise in the future. 
    "Had the crown not firmed recently, we would have expected a 
rise in CNB (central bank) interest rates, however with the 
current firmness in the crown, central bankers should wait and 
leave rates unchanged for now." 
     
    JIRI SKOP, ANALYST, KOMERCNI BANKA, PRAGUE 
    "The rise in industrial prices for September failed to 
surprise in any way. 
    "Far more interesting from the point of view of monetary 
policy is a further increase in agriculture producer prices ... 
which is pointing at a further rise in food prices within the 
CPI (consumer price basket). 
    "We still expect two rate hikes by 25 basis points this year 
and a further 50 basis points next year." 
 
MARKET REACTION: 
- Crown at 27.495 per euro , little changed from levels 
prior to the data release. Money market rates   
and debt yields   flat to slightly lower. 
 
BACKGROUND: 
- Industrial PPI and agriculture producer prices are watched 
closely by the markets as leading indicators for consumer 
inflation which is targeted by the Czech central bank (CNB). 
 
- September consumer inflation                   [ID:nL08333224] 
                                 [ID:nL08396691] [ID:nL08166283] 
- August industrial output figures               [ID:nPRA001548] 
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision      [ID:nL27772602] 
  [ID:nPRA001517] [ID:nPRA001518] [ID:nPRA001533] [ID:n05533999] 
  
LINKS: 
- For further details on September producer prices and past 
data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the statistical 
bureau's Website: 
    http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-ipc 
 
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on        
- Instant Views on other Czech data                 [CZ/INSTANT] 
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators            [CZ/ECI] 
 
- Key data releases in central Europe    [CEE-CONVERGENCE-WATCH] 
- For Czech money markets data click on                 
- Czech money guide                                       
- Czech benchmark state bond prices                    
- Czech forward money market rates                       
 
  
  Keywords: CZECH ECONOMY/PRICES  
    

[PRAGUE/Reuters/Finance.cz]