INSTANT VIEW 2-Czech Sept trade balance swings into black

...in the 
previous two months. 
************************************************************** 
KEY POINTS: 
(in bln CZK)           Sept        Aug        Sept fcast 
 balance              14.37       -0.59         8.0 
(nominal y/y change in pct) 
 exports              11.0        12.1          n/a 
 imports               7.6        11.7          n/a 
 
 (For full table of trade data, click on........[nPRG000567]) 
 
- According to seasonally-adjusted preliminary data, exports 
rose 5.3 percent in September from August while imports fell 3.1 
percent percent month-on-month. 
- In euro terms, exports rose 14.3 percent and imports by 10.8 
percent year-on-year in September, outpacing the rise in local 
currency terms because of a strengthening in the crown. 
 
COMMENTARY: 
    PAVEL SOBISEK, ECONOMIST, UNICREDIT GLOBAL MARKETS 
    "This is a significant surprise. It is caused by slower 
growth in imports rather than a sharp increase in exports. 
However, it is important that the trend of export growth 
outpacing the rise in imports resumed in trade with machinery 
and transport equipment. 
    "For years rather than just months, the crown no longer 
reacts to numbers coming from the real economy. It is being 
driven by the financial account, rather than the current 
account, of the balance of payments."  
 
MARKET REACTION: 
    The Czech crown was little changed by the data, trading at 
26.978 to the euro . 
  
BACKGROUND: 
- Market expectations before release             [ID:nL30594915] 
- Slovak August trade figures                    [ID:nL12505659] 
- Polish trade in August                         [ID:nL15148953] 
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision      [ID:nL25700600] 
  [ID:nPRA0015xx] [ID:nPRA0015xx] [ID:nPRA001568] [ID:n25439215] 
 
- For further details on September foreign trade and other past 
data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical 
Bureau's website: 
    http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-vzo 
 
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on        
- Instant Views on other Czech data click on        [CZ/INSTANT] 
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators            [CZ/ECI] 
 
- Key data releases in central Europe    [CEE-CONVERGENCE-WATCH] 
- For Czech money markets data click on                 
- Czech money guide                                       
- Czech benchmark state bond prices                    
- Czech forward money market rates                       
 
 

[PRAGUE/Reuters/Finance.cz]