INSTANT VIEW 2-Czech retail sales grow fastests in 6 months

...September's 
revised 4.1 percent rise, data released on Monday showed. 
**************************************************************** 
KEY POINTS: 
(change in percent)       Oct        Sept        Oct forecast 
RETAIL SALES (y/y)        9.4      4.1 (4.3)     6.0 
 
(Click on [ID:nPRA001669] for full table of October retail 
sales) 
 
- Rise is strongest since March 2007, according to Reuters data. 
- The headline, unadjusted figure includes car sales and 
repairs, fuel sales and spending on a variety of consumer goods, 
including foodstuffs. 
- Seasonally-adjusted retail sales rise by a real 0.9 percent 
month-on-month and 7.6 percent year-on-year in October.  
- Excluding the auto segment, seasonally-adjusted sales dipped a 
real 0.1 percent on the month, due to a 1.1 percent drop in 
foodstuff sales. 
- Ex-autos, retail sales up 6.7 percent year-on-year in real and 
seasonally and working-day adjusted terms. 
- Car sales and repairs up 18.1 percent year-on-year, fuel sales 
rise 3.0 percent. 
 
COMMENTARY: 
    JAN VEJMELEK, HEAD OF ECONOMICS AND STRATEGY RESEARCH, 
KOMERCNI BANKA, PRAGUE 
    "October retail sales growth is truly impressive, even the 
most optimistic market forecast was exceeded. Even though the 
number was positively influenced by a higher number of working 
days and high dynamics in the autos segment, it does not change 
the overall picture of strong consumption that is the main 
driver of the Czech economy. 
    "Together with a tightening labour market and rising 
headline inflation, this situation must be a source of concern 
to central bankers. The number is another argument in favour of 
the view, that is in minority on the market, that the CNB 
(central bank) could increase interest rates by 25 basis points 
already this Wednesday. The main reason for this pre-emptive 
move should be an effort to clamp down on growing inflation 
expectations." 
 
BACKGROUND: 
- Nov consumer inflation                         [ID:nL10470437] 
                                  [ID:nL10617049] [ID:nL1062697] 
- Oct industrial output figures                  [ID:nL11393445] 
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision      [ID:nL29206268] 
                                  [ID:nPRA001631] [ID:n29679528] 
 
LINKS: 
- For further details on October retail sales and past data, 
Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical 
Bureau's website: 
    http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-slu 
 
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on        
- Instant Views on other Czech data                 [CZ/INSTANT] 
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators            [CZ/ECI] 
 
- Key data releases in central Europe    [CEE-CONVERGENCE-WATCH] 
- For Czech money markets data click on                 
- Czech money guide                                       
- Czech benchmark state bond prices                    
- Czech forward money market rates                       
 
 (Writing by Marek Petrus; editing by Tony Austin) 
  
  Keywords: CZECH RETAIL/  
    

[PRAGUE/Reuters/Finance.cz]