TABLE-Czech opposition widens lead, would come to power

    PRAGUE, Oct 16 (Reuters) - The Czech leftist opposition 
Social Democrats (CSSD) have widened their lead over the ruling 
Civic Democrats (ODS), according to an opinion poll published on 
Tuesday. 
    The poll by the private STEM agency put the Social Democrats 
at 30.5 percent, up from 28.7 percent in the agency's previous 
survey in September. 
    Support for the ruling, right-wing ODS dropped to 25.9 
percent from 27.0, extending a slide from a peak of 35.1 percent 
in late 2006, shortly after its June 2006 election victory. 
    The Social Democrats and far-left Communists would take 105 
seats in the 200-seat lower house, enough to oust the ODS-led 
coalition from power, according to STEM's figures. 
    The ODS and its two smaller centrist allies in the 
government would win the remaining 95 seats. 
    The survey followed other polls last month which showed the 
same popularity swing away from the ruling party after the 
government pushed controversial tax and welfare reforms through 
the lower house of parliament in August. 
    The reforms hike the sales tax and healthcare payments for 
all while cutting welfare benefits and personal income taxes, 
mainly for companies and top wage earners. 
    Some politicians have also attributed the drop in support 
for the ODS to public opposition to a plan, supported by the 
government, to host a radar base that would be part of a U.S. 
missile defence shield. 
     
 DATE    INSTITUTE   ODS    CSSD   KSCM   KDU-CSL  Greens 
 Oct 16    STEM      25.9   30.5   11.3    6.6       8.8 
 Sept 24   FI        32.2   33.0   15.3    6.8       7.1 
 Sept 19   CVVM      31.0   33.0   14.5    9.0      10.0 
 Sept 17   STEM      27.0   28.7   12.2    7.3       9.1 
 Aug 10    FI        33.8   30.7   13.3    8.8       6.9 
 June 20   CVVM      32.0   32.0   14.5    8.0      10.5 
 June 19   STEM      29.3   27.0   12.5    5.9       9.9 
 June 16   FI        33.5   30.8   12.7    8.8       9.2 
 May 23    CVVM      35.0   29.0   15.5    9.5       9.0 
 May 17    STEM      28.6   27.6   12.6    6.6       9.2 
 May 9     FI        34.5   32.3   12.2    9.1       7.0 
 April 18  STEM      29.2   24.9   10.9    6.6      11.6 
 April 18  CVVM      35.0   29.0   14.0    8.0      10.5 
 March 28  FI        35.1   26.9   13.0    8.2      11.0 
 March 21  CVVM      34.5   29.0   15.0    9.0       9.0 
 March 14  STEM      32.0   23.7   10.9    7.0      11.1 
 Feb 26    FI        34.7   29.5   13.3    7.3       7.6 
 Feb 21    CVVM      34.5   26.0   15.5    8.0      12.0 
 Feb 15    STEM      31.3   23.4   12.7    7.6      10.3 
 Feb 1     CVVM      37.0   24.5   16.0    8.0      11.5 
 Jan 26    FI        36.5   29.5   14.1    7.3       7.6 
 Jan 16    STEM      32.3   20.9   12.4    7.5      11.1 
 Dec 20    CVVM      38.0   23.5   11.5   11.0      12.0 
 Dec 15    STEM      32.9   20.6   13.1    7.0      11.2 
 Dec 07    FI        35.8   30.9   14.3    6.6       7.2 
 Nov 23    CVVM      41.0   26.0   11.0    7.0      11.0 
 Nov 15    STEM      35.1   20.7   10.9    7.5       9.4 
 Nov 10    FI        41.1   27.7   12.7    6.0       7.1 
 Oct 23    CVVM      36.0   30.5   15.0    6.0       9.5 
 Oct 16    FI        35.9   27.2   13.9    6.9       8.4 
 Oct 15    STEM      32.0   22.7   11.7    6.3      10.5 
 Sept 22   CVVM      37.0   29.5   13.0    8.0      10.0 
 Sept 21   STEM      32.8   26.6   10.0    4.2      10.3 
 Sept 18   FI        36.3   32.0   13.7    6.5       7.3 
 Aug 7     FI        41.0   30.8   12.3    6.3       6.9 
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June 2006 election   35.4   32.3   12.8    7.2       6.3 
  
    NOTE. The latest STEM poll was conducted between October 1 
and 8 among 1,280 Czechs eligible to vote. 
 The parties are: 
 - Civic Democratic Party (ODS) - right wing, 
liberal-conservative 
 - The Czech Social Democratic Party (CSSD) - leftist 
 - Christian Democratic Union-Czechoslovak People's Party 
(KDU-CSL) - centrist 
 - The Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSCM) - far left 
 - The Greens - environmentalists, centrist. 
   Pollsters: The FI and CVVM results are based on a model 
predicting gains at the poll box, excluding those not willing to 
vote and undecided. 
   STEM results are direct voter preferences, and include 
replies from all respondents including those not willing to 
vote. Parties should thus win a larger than indicated share of 
the vote at the election. 
 ((Reporting by Marek Petrus, editing by Mike Peacock; Reuters 
Messaging: rm://marek.petrus.reuters.com@reuters.net; e-mail: 
prague.newsroom@reuters.com or marek.petrus@reuters.com; Tel: 
+420 224 190 477)) 
  Keywords: CZECH POLITICS/POLL