* Feb trade due at 0700 GMT on April 6, seen in surplus
* CPI seen up a touch, but decline to continue
* Industrial output likely down 19 pct in February
By Mirka Krufova
PRAGUE, April 2 (Reuters) - Czech industry likely remained weak in February
and inflation was probably steady at the lower end of the central bank's target
in March, but the data releases may show some stabilisation, a Reuters poll
showed on Tuesday.
The median forecast for industrial output showed a 19 percent annual drop in
February, following a sharp 23.3 percent fall to start the year.
Foreign trade was expected to show a 5 billion crown ($248.1 million)
surplus after a 3.5 billion crown surplus in January, although the month showed
a record plunge in exports.
"Exports and industrial data will likely be the most important, and it will
be interesting to see if there is some stabilisation now," said Jan Vejmelek,
head of economic and strategy research for Komercni Banka.
"However it will still be too early to draw any strong conclusions," he
added.
The Czech economy, like neighbouring economies, has been punished by the
slowdown in demand for its cars, automotive parts and electronics in the
recession-hit euro zone.
The country's largest exporter, Volkswagen <VOWG.DE> unit Skoda Auto, noted
an uptick for orders starting in February, mainly from Germany, where a scrap
subsidy on new car purchases was put in place.
Last month the carmaker went back to a five-day working week after cutting
back working time since last autumn.
Gross domestic product fell 0.9 percent on a quarter-to-quarter basis in
final months of 2008, and analysts expect a further contraction in the first
quarter.
On Wednesday, the Czech Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) slowed its decline
in March, with the headline figure inching up for only the second time in a
year, and some analysts put this down to the car scrap subsidy abroad.
"The production expectation in manufacturing of motor vehicles, trailers,
and semi-trailers improved substantially in March," said Jaromir Sindel, chief
economist for the Czech Republic at Citibank.
Analysts also expected the inflation rate to be up an annual 2.1 percent in
March, rising a touch from 2 percent the previous month.
The central bank targets 2-4 percent annual inflation, and analysts and the
bank's board have said inflation could approach zero later in the year.
The central bank has cut 200 basis points since August to bring interest
rates to a historic low of 1.75 percent, but last week held borrowing costs
steady partly due to uncertainty over the weakening crown currency.
The crown <EURCZK=> has lost 15 percent since a record high seen last July,
but has outperformed regional peers like Hungary's forint and Poland's zloty
with only a 0.3 percent loss this year.
However, most analysts see further crown weakening by the middle part of the
year. "The weaker crown and hikes in tobacco prices are likely to limit stronger
disinflation," Citibank's Sindel said.
For a TABLE with poll results, click on []
(Writing by Jason Hovet; Editing by Andy Bruce)
