INSTANT VIEW 3-Czech Nov C/A falls into deficit, near fcast

                                
 PRAGUE, Jan 15 (Reuters) - The Czech current account swung
to a 1.61 billion crown ($89.34 million) deficit in November
after recording a 12.4 billion crown surplus in October, and was
close to a market consensus of 1.5 billion crowns.
                                
 The swing looked chiefly due to dividend outflows paid by
international companies and analysts said overall the figures
looked healthy, though the crown currency inched lower
afterwards.
                                
 The numbers were also affected by a surplus on the balance
of trade in goods and services. November foreign trade showed a
14.5 billion surplus, higher than forecast.
****************************************************************
KEY POINTS:
(CZK billions)            Nov           Oct         Nov forecast
Current Account          -1.61         12.41        -1.5
Financial Account        16.04         -5.94         n/a
Net Direct Investment     3.64          6.11         n/a

 (For full table, double click on [ID:nPRA004925])
 
                                
 COMMENTARY:
                                
 HELENA HORSKA, ECONOMIC RESEARCH, RAIFFEISENBANK
                                
 "Revenue outflows traditionally bring November current
account to deficits.
                                
 "For the past year, the Czech Republic will show the most
balanced current account in history, the balance is going
towards the lowest deficit in history. We expect 2010 current
account in a moderate surplus."
                                
 
                                
 PAVEL SOBISEK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, UNICREDIT PRAGUE
                                
 "We continue to see an extremely low foreign investment
inflow which of course is the consequence of the economic
crisis, but it could also be the result of some changes in the
long-term trends and of the fact that the Czech Republic loses
the potential for the inflow of new projects."

                                
 JAN VEJMELEK, HEAD OF ECONOMIC AND STRATEGY RESEARCH,
KOMERCNI BANKA
                                
 "The figure is close to consensus. Overall this is a good
figure.
                                
 "Looking at the structure you can see still a huge surplus
in international trade. Only the income balance is in deficit
because of profit repatriation, but you can still see some
improvement.
                                
 "We expect the whole current account deficit will be below
minus 1 percent for 2009, which is an excellent figure in the
current environment.
                                
 "Overall these figures are supportive of the Czech crown."
 
                                
 MARKET REACTION:
                                
 The crown <EURCZK=> was a touch stronger at 25.855 to the
euro at 0924 GMT, from 25.86 before the data.
                                
 
- The balance of current transfers includes a deficit of 1
billion crowns on transfers from the Czech Republic to the EU
budget.
- The capital account includes drawing of 2 billion crowns from
the EU budget and a 4.6 billion crown revenue from the sale of
emission permits.
- The annual current account deficit total has been falling.
- Capital inflow on the financial account was around 16 billion
crowns under ECB methodology.
- The net inflow of direct investment stood at 3.6 billion
crowns and was affected by the expected reinvested earnings.
- The inflow of portfolio investment was due primarily to a
foreign bond issue by the government and a state-owned entity.
- The total volume of bond issues abroad exceeded 10 billion
crown.
- The sale of part of crown-denominated debt securities from
foreign entities' portfolios corrected inflow of capital.
- The annual net direct investment inflow total has been
declining.
- The annual net portfolio investment total has been showing an
increasing inflow of funds.
 - Other investment showed a surplus of 16.3 billion crown, due
to a change in the short-term international position of banks (a
decline in short-term assets and a rise in short-term
liabilities).
- The government drew loans from the European Investment Bank
for the development of transport infrastructure in the amount of
2.2 billion crowns.
- The balance of transaction in the central bank' s
international reserves adjusted for valuation changes rose by
6.2 billion crowns.
                                
 
  BACKGROUND:
- Analyst expectations before data release       [ID:nLDE5BS0J9]
- Czech Nov foreign trade figures                [ID:nLDE60606U]
- Polish Oct C/A data                            [ID:nGEE5BA1FC]
- Slovak Oct C/A data                            [ID:nPRG003843]
- Hungary's Q3 C/A gap                           [ID:nLDE5BS1A9]
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision.......[ID:nDE5BF128]
                                
[ID:nPRG003844] [ID:nDE5BF161] [ID:nPRA004895] [ID:nDE5BM155]

LINKS:
- For further details on November of payments numbers and past
data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech National
Bank's website:
                                
 http://www.cnb.cz/en/statistics/bop_stat/

- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on       <ECONCZ>
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- Key data releases in central Europe    [CEE-CONVERGENCE-WATCH]
- For Czech money markets data click on                <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide                                      <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices                   <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates                      <CZKFRA>

 (Reporting by Jana Mlcochova; editing by Patrick Graham)