* U.S. economy still under strain - President Obama
* UAE says oil market "well supplied"
* IEA sees no more OPEC supply cuts in May
* IMF to cut global forecast, sees 2010 recovery-paper
(Updates throughout)
By Christopher Johnson
LONDON, April 20 (Reuters) - Oil fell more than 5 percent to
below $48 a barrel on Monday, depressed by a rising U.S. dollar
and growing caution about the pace of any economic recovery and
its impact on oil demand.
President Barack Obama said on Sunday the U.S. economy
remained under strain and his top economic adviser tempered
hopes for a speedy recovery that have driven the stock market to
successive gains.
The dollar rose to a one-month high against the euro as
sharp falls in equities sent investors back to the perceived
security of the U.S. currency. A rising dollar can limit the
appeal of commodities and oil to some investors. []
U.S. crude for May delivery <CLc1> was down $2.57 at $47.76
a barrel by 1246 GMT.
London Brent crude <LCOc1> for June fell $1.87 to $51.48.
"Near term, we don't see any supportive factors for the oil
market," said Harry Tchilinguirian, oil analyst at BNP Paribas
in London. "We have not yet turned the corner on the economy,
oil demand is very weak and inventories are high."
Christopher Bellew, a broker at Bache Commodities, agreed:
"There's still so much bearish fundamental data it's hard to
see it (oil prices) rising that much."
"LONG SLOG"
President Obama said on Sunday the economy remained under
strain, and his top economic adviser Paul Volcker said the
country's recovery would be a "long slog." []
U.S. stock index futures extended losses on Monday as
investors fretted about the health of the U.S. economy and the
outlook for the financial sector. []
The head of the International Monetary Fund, Dominique
Strauss-Kahn, said the agency would cut its global economic
forecasts in the coming week. He expected a recovery to start in
the first half of next year. []
Oil has fallen nearly $100 from its record high of over $147
last July, but has flattened out to trade around $50 for most of
this month in part due to supply cuts by the Organization of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries.
The International Energy Agency said on Monday it did not
expect OPEC to curb output again when it meets in May and did
not see a recovery in oil demand until 2010.
Some oil analysts see further price weakness through the
northern hemisphere summer before the market recovers.
BNP Paribas forecasts U.S. light crude oil futures will drop
to average just $35 per barrel in the second quarter of 2009,
down from over $43 in the first quarter, before recovering to
$45 in the third quarter and $58 in the fourth.
Asked at an energy conference in Dubai when a recovery in
oil demand was expected, IEA Deputy Executive Director Richard
Jones replied: "Early next year."
United Arab Emirates Oil Minister Mohamed al-Hamli told
reporters at the conference the oil market was "well supplied":
"A lot of refineries are not running at full capacity. A lot
of oil is going into storage," he said. "We've seen that stocks
are building up. We've seen them go from 52 days to close to 59
days."
(Additional reporting by Christopher Johnson in London and
Fayen Wong in Perth; editing by Peter Blackburn)
