PRAGUE, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Czech industrial output dropped by
lower-than-expected 8.1 percent year-on-year in August,
decelerating from a 18.2 percent fall in July, the Czech
Statistics Bureau (CSU) said in a flash estimate on Thursday.
Analysts had forecast a 12.5 percent annual fall in August.
If confirmed, the drop would be the first single digit fall
after nine months of double-digit contractions.
The CSU said the data included 71 percent of industrial
output respondents, representing 72 percent of the standard
survey sample in total revenues.
The statistics office will release full details on October
12.
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KEY POINTS:
(y/y change in pct) Aug July Aug forecast
Industrial output -8.1 -18.2 -12.5
(For table of June data click on...............[])
- The stats office did not release a seasonally adjusted output
figure, saying August had the same number of working days as a
year ago.
- Industrial sales fell 12.5 percent annually in current prices
in August.
- The value of new orders dropped 13.8 percent year-on-year in
August, of which foreign orders fell 10.5 percent.
COMMENTARY:
PETR DUFEK, ANALYST, CSOB
"Overall it is a good result, which suggests that the
situation in industry is beginning to stabilise.
"But orders do not look too positive, and we are rather
expecting in the later months.
"The key moment will be the end of the scrap subsidy in
Germany, which had significantly improved the results of the
Czech automotive industry."
MICHAL BROZKA, ANALYST, RAIFFEISENBANK
"The data confirms that a stabilisation of industry in the
Czech Republic is taking place, but still with the support by
scrap subsidies abroad.
"While in July, industry (output) fell month-on-month,
August should show growth again after adjustments.
"The coming months could look similar... a more significant
recovery should take place with the new year."
JAN VEJMELEK, HEAD OF ECONOMIC AND STRATEGY RESEARCH,
KOMERCNI BANKA
"It was quite a significant improvement, especially if you
compare it with the previous month. This is because of the low
basis for year-on-year comparison, and is also the result of
some impulse coming from abroad, especially Germany. It is still
a question of how long it will have an effect... as it was due
to temporary fiscal packages.
"There is no reason for huge optimism."
MARKET REACTION:
The crown dips to 25.303 to the euro <EURCZK=> from 25.28
ahead of the data.
BACKGROUND:
- Market expectations before release []
LINKS:
- For further information on August preliminary releases on
industry data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech
Statistical Bureau's Website:
http://www.czso.cz/eng/redakce.nsf/i/home
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
(Reporting by Jason Hovet)
