* Zloty, forint rebound after recent falls
* Hungary's, Romania's GDP data showed bigger Q2 contraction
* Czech retail sales soft before Q2 GDP release
(Adds bonds, details, updates prices)
WARSAW, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Hungary's forint and Poland's
zloty jumped on Thursday, with a surge in global equities
markets and better-than-expected euro zone growth data
outweighing disappointing GDP figures from the region.
Growth data from Hungary and Romania showed
bigger-than-expected contractions in gross domestic product in
the second quarter of 7.6 percent and 8.8 percent, while Czech
retail sales also showed signs the recession had hit the
domestic economy.
At 0927 GMT, the zloty <EURPLN=> was up 1 percent against
the euro at 4.11, while the forint <EURHUF=> gained 1.3 percent.
The Czech crown <EURCZK=> was up 0.4 percent, and Romania's leu
<EURRON=> was virtually flat.
The zloty resumed its rally after a pause of several days.
In July alone, the currency gained almost 7 percent against the
euro and is expected to rise further.
"We are quite optimistic especially for the zloty as Polish
economic growth is likely to be the highest in the region and
the currency should clearly outperform in the mid-term," said
Lutz Karpowitz, FX strategist at Commerzbank.
Some analysts also say the zloty should look attractive
relative to the forint if the recovery of the global economy
proves slower than previously expected.
Regional stocks opened stronger on Thursday, with Prague's
PX <> leading gains by rising more than 3 percent. In Warsaw,
the opening of the bourse was delayed on Thursday due to
technical problems. []
"Equity markets are still the main drivers and they
mostly rebounded on Wednesday, boosting currencies," Karpowitz
said. "Additional support came from the German GDP data, which
were much better than expected."
Germany and France surprisingly posted 0.3 percent growth in
the second quarter. []
LAGGING RECOVERY
But the Hungarian and Romanian growth data indicated central
and eastern Europe was still lagging in any recovery.
Czech data showed retail sales fell 4.9 percent year-on-year
in June, a bigger fall than analysts had forecast and a sign
that what started as a foreign-demand led contraction has hit
the domestic market through rising unemployment and stagnant
real wages.
"This is something that confirms the recent steps of the
central bank to cut interest rates," said David Marek, chief
economist at Patria Finance.
Czech second quarter GDP data is due out on Friday, while
Poland's data is due out on August 28.
Poland's statistics office releases inflation data at 1200
GMT and Karpowitz said it also might give some support for the
currency in that it is expected to indicate no lowering of
interest rates -- in contrast to other countries such as the
Czech Republic and Romania where inflation is slowing quickly.
"For as long as (Poland's) inflation remains above the
central bank's target, the Monetary Policy Council is unlikely
to cut rates," Karpowitz said.
Polish bonds were stronger before the release, tracking
currencies, as yields fell 2-7 basis points across the curve.
"If the (inflation) data does not disappoint (on the
upside), we can see further price growth, especially of 5-year
bonds," said Tomasz Bielanowicz, dealer at PKO BP.
--------------------------MARKET SNAPSHOT--------------------
Currency Latest Previous Local Local
close currency currency
change change
today in 2009
Czech crown <EURCZK=> 25.717 25.821 +0.4% +4.03%
Polish zloty <EURPLN=> 4.111 4.153 +1.02% +0.1%
Hungarian forint <EURHUF=> 267.95 271.52 +1.33% -1.64%
Croatian kuna <EURHRK=> 7.32 7.32 0% +0.61%
Romanian leu <EURRON=> 4.213 4.212 -0.02% -4.71%
Serbian dinar <EURRSD=> 93.486 93.436 -0.05% -4.29%
Yield Spreads
Czech treasury bonds <0#CZBMK=>
2-yr T-bond CZ2YT=RR +7 basis points to 55bps over bmk*
4-yr T-bond CZ4YT=RR +10 basis points to +116bps over bmk*
8-yr T-bond CZ8YT=RR +9 basis points to +249bps over bmk*
Polish treasury bonds <0#PLBMK=>
2-yr T-bond PL2YT=RR -6 basis points to +340bps over bmk*
5-yr T-bond PL5YT=RR -4 basis points to +293bps over bmk*
10-yr T-bond PL10YT=RR -5 basis points to +260bps over bmk*
Hungarian treasury bonds <0#HUBMK=>
3-yr T-bond HU3YT=RR -6 basis points to +656bps over bmk*
5-yr T-bond HU5YT=RR -10 basis points to +593bps over bmk*
10-yr T-bond HU10YT=RR -13 basis points to +506bps over bmk*
*Benchmark is German bond equivalent.
All data taken from Reuters at 1129 CET.
Currency percent change calculated from the daily domestic
close at 1500 GMT.
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(Reporting by Reuters bureaus, writing by Dagmara Leszkowicz;
Editing by Ruth Pitchford)
