PRAGUE, Aug 28 (Reuters) - Czech industrial output dropped
by a much more-than-expected 18.4 percent year-on-year in July,
accelerating from a 12.2 percent fall in June, the Czech
Statistics Bureau (CSU) said in a flash estimate on Friday.
Analysts had forecast a 14.5 percent annual fall in July.
The CSU, which started providing a flash estimate on
production in April, said the data included 79 percent of
industrial output respondents, representing 82 percent of the
standard survey sample in total revenues.
The statistics office will release full details on September
11.
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KEY POINTS:
(y/y change in pct) July June July forecast
Industrial output -18.4 -12.2 -14.5
(For table of June data click on...............[])
- Seasonally adjusted output was estimated to be down 16.4
percent year-on-year.
- Industrial sales fell 19.9 percent annually in current prices
in July.
- The value of new orders dropped 22.7 percent year-on-year in
July, of which foreign orders fell 22.8 percent.
COMMENTARY:
MARTIN LOBOTKA, ANALYST, CESKA SPORITELNA
"As for the figures, what is important is that
seasonally-adjusted data is in line with expectations.
"We still count on an industry drop of around 13 percent on
average this year... You will probably see (in the structure)
the effect of the scrap subsidy is slowly vanishing."
VOJTECH BENDA, SENIOR ECONOMIST, ING WHOLESALE BANKING
"Assuming the figure will not be revised later, the
seasonally adjusted industrial output declined by 4 percent
month-on-month, after promising 2 percent growth the month
before."
"The deterioration of industrial performance likely reflects
diminishing effect of car scrappage subsidies abroad, which was
the key trigger of rebounding exports in the second quarter."
"Hopefully, the improving sentiment of German business
sector, on the back of rising German foreign new industrial
orders should pull the growth of Czech exports and industrial
output back to positive territory during the remainder of the
second half."
MICHAL BROZKA, ANALYST, RAIFFEISENBANK
"The drop... is a moderate disappointment. This year's July
had one less working day. Due to a pick up in orders from
Western Europe (and) continuation of an economic recovery, it is
possible to think that in the next months the situation in Czech
industry should improve."
PAVEL SOBISEK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, UNICREDITBANK
"It is a very bad figure, which shows that the Czech economy
probably lags behind the recovery in Germany.
"Inventories fell dramatically in Europe and perhaps in most
of the world, (and) are going to be refilled. This effect begins
to show in the bigger economies.
"But it could take a couple of months before it spills over
to the Czech economy which is a sub-supplier of the big
exporters (countries)."
TOMAS VLK, ECONOMIST, PATRIA FINANCE
"It came out worse than expected, suggesting the delay of
the Czech economy with the euro zone is still there. The
previous months' data were better; the optimism is slightly
muted. But we still see the worst part of the recession is over.
"Czech industry is expected to post better figures than in
the first half of the year. We expect interest rates to stay
flat for quite a long time."
BACKGROUND:
- Market expectations before release []
LINKS:
- For further information on July special preliminary releases
on industry data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech
Statistical Bureau's Website:
http://www.czso.cz/eng/redakce.nsf/i/home
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
(Reporting by Jana Mlcochova)
