April 28 (Reuters) - Reuters has surveyed 31 emerging market strategists
for their views on when the newest members of the European Union are likely to
adopt the euro and when the EU may admit more new members.
Following is a summary of the results of the survey, taken April 20 to 27.
For analysis of the results, double-click on [].
1. Will Warsaw's credit line with the IMF help Poland's bid to enter ERM-2
this year? (YES/NO)
15 said yes
12 said no
2. In what year do you expect these countries to formally adopt the euro?
Median Mean Mode Maximum Minimum F'casts
Bulgaria 2015 2015 2015 2018 2012 25
Czech Republic 2014 2014 2014 2018 2012 29
Estonia 2013 2013 2013 2016 2011 24
Hungary 2014 2014 2014 2017 2012 28
Latvia 2014 2014 2013 2020 2012 24
Lithuania 2014 2014 2013 2020 2012 24
Poland 2013 2013 2013 2016 2012 29
Romania 2015 2016 2015 2020 2013 26
3. Which ERM-2 countries do you expect to revalue/devalue their currencies
in the next 12 months?
REVALUE DEVALUE NO CHANGE
Bulgaria 0 4 19
Czech Republic 14 5 5
Estonia 0 1 20
Hungary 10 10 3
Latvia 0 6 15
Lithuania 0 5 16
Poland 17 5 2
Romania 8 12 2
4. Which are the biggest hurdles faced by EU countries on the road to euro
adoption: controlling inflation, controlling budget deficits, reducing public
debt, stabilising domestic currencies?
(Table shows count, some economists selected more than one)
Control Control budget Cut public Stabilise domestic
inflation deficits debt currencies
Bulgaria 15 7 0 7
Czech Republic 2 24 1 5
Estonia 9 19 1 8
Hungary 9 24 20 15
Latvia 11 21 2 11
Lithuania 12 19 1 10
Poland 6 27 0 12
Romania 15 27 0 17
5. In which year do you expect these currencies to enter EU's
Exchange Rate Mechanism and at what central parity rate to the euro upon
joining?
a. Year of joining
Median Mean Mode Max Min F'casts
Bulgarian Lev 2012 2012 2012 2014 2010 21
Czech Koruna 2011 2011 2011 2014 2010 25
Hungarian Forint 2011 2012 2011 2013 2010 24
Polish Zloty 2010 2010 2010 2012 2009 25
Romanian Leu 2012 2013 2012 2016 2010 22
b. What central parity to the euro
Median Mean Mode Max Min F'casts
Bulgarian Lev 1.96 1.98 1.96 2.25 1.95 13
Czech Koruna 25.00 25.33 26.00 28.00 23.50 16
Hungarian Forint 275.00 275.93 260.00 325.00 240.00 14
Polish Zloty 4.10 4.03 4.20 4.70 3.00 15
Romanian Leu 3.90 3.91 3.00 5.00 3.00 12
6. In which year will these countries join the EU?
Median Mean Mode Max Min F'casts
Albania 2018 2017 2020 2020 2012 16
Bosnia 2018 2018 2020 2025 2012 17
Croatia 2012 2012 2012 2015 2010 21
Macedonia 2016 2016 2016 2020 2012 19
Montenegro 2015 2016 2015 2020 2012 17
Serbia 2016 2016 2015 2020 2012 18
Turkey 2019 2018 2020 2025 2013 15
(Table compiled by Sarmista Sen; editing by Patrick Graham)
