* IEA further reduces 2009 world crude demand forecast
* Chinese oil imports rise to second-highest ever in March
* Iran says further OPEC oil output cut possible
* Qatar says too soon to tell about further cuts
(Adds settlement prices)
NEW YORK, April 13 (Reuters) - Oil fell more than 4 percent
on Monday after the International Energy Agency slashed its
forecast for oil demand, offsetting the impact of data showing
Chinese crude imports rose to their second highest level ever.
The IEA said on Friday world oil demand would fall by 2.4
million barrels per day (bpd) this year compared with 2008 to
83.4 million bpd as the rate of contraction in fuel consumption
reached levels last seen in the early 1980s. []
U.S. crude <CLc1> settled $2.19, or nearly 4.2 percent,
lower at $50.05 while ICE Brent crude <LCOc1> shed $1.92 to
$52.14.
Because of the Easter public holiday, Monday was the first
day of trade since Thursday's nearly 6 percent gain on the oil
market, driven by a rally on Wall Street.
Analysts have said investment money had begun to creep back
into commodities and any sustained recovery in equities could
continue to support oil.
But the U.S. stock market [] fell back on Monday, leaving
oil traders to focus on brimming fuel inventories and the
impact of recession on fuel demand.
"Crude is being weighed down by the IEA report and also the
weak equities," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading
in Chicago.
Dealers will be seeking any confirmation of the IEA's
demand forecast this week. The U.S. Energy Information
Administration releases its short-term energy outlook on
Tuesday and OPEC publishes its monthly view on Wednesday.
The IEA's report placed the emphasis on depleted demand and
bountiful inventories in developed countries.
Preliminary Chinese trade data on Friday showed crude oil
imports rose by more than a quarter versus February to the
highest in a year in March and were just short of a record.
[]
In contrast to economic weakness elsewhere, China's
industrial output growth picked up to 8.3 percent in March from
a record low of 3.8 percent in the first two months of the
year, Premier Wen Jiabao said. []
WILL OPEC CUT AGAIN?
Oil has recovered to a $47-$54-range for the past four
weeks from a low of $32.40 in December. It is still down by
almost $100 from a record high above $147 last July.
Saudi Arabia will trim oil supplies to some of its Asian
customers in May, and one European buyer suggested the world's
top exporter was concerned about high inventories.
[]
Saudi Arabia has been largely responsible for OPEC's high
level of compliance -- estimated at around 80 percent -- with
agreements to reduce output by a total of 4.2 million bpd since
September last year.
The kingdom and other members of the producer group have
lowered their price ambitions, saying oil at around $50 a
barrel is a good compromise given the weakness of the global
economy.
But OPEC was still likely to be concerned by the IEA's
estimate that inventories in developed countries equated to
61.6 days of forward demand cover in February. That is the
highest since 1993 and well above the roughly 52 days cover
many in OPEC consider comfortable.
Iran's OPEC governor Mohammad Ali Khatibi said if oil
demand continued to drop the group might decide to further
reduce its oil output, the Iranian newspaper Hamshahri on
Monday quoted him as saying.
But Qatar's Oil Minister Abdullah al-Attiyah said on Monday
it was "too early to react."
"I think what we are saying is that $40 to $50 (a barrel)
is more pragmatic for the economic crisis," Attiyah said.
(Reporting by Jonathan Leff in Singapore, Alex Lawler and
Barbara Lewis in London, Robert Gibbons, Gene Ramos and Timothy
Gardner in New York)
