(Recasts; updates prices, changes byline)
By Lucia Mutikani
NEW YORK, April 29 (Reuters) - The dollar rose to an almost
one-month high versus the euro on Tuesday, buoyed by growing
views the Federal Reserve is ready to signal a pause in its
interest rate cutting-campaign and by weak European economic
data.
The U.S. currency was headed for its largest monthly gain
in almost a year as the policy-setting Federal Open Market
Committee started a regular two-day meeting against the
backdrop of swelling inflation pressures.
Analysts expect the FOMC to cut the benchmark lending rate
by 25 basis points to 2 percent and indicate a pause for now,
after an aggressive exercise that has cut rates by 3 percentage
points since mid-September.
"It's essentially the view that we are perhaps at a
significant juncture here in terms of monetary policy." said
Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at TD Securities in
Toronto.
"The market thinks it's going for 25 basis points cut and
signal a pause in the easing cycle, whereas the expectation
appears to be growing that the European Central Bank is closer
to a rate cut. That's one of the reasons why euro/dollar is
moving the way it is."
The euro dropped to $1.5542 <EUR=>, a four-week trough,
according to Reuters data. In late New York trade, it was
quoted at $1.5565, down 0.6 percent on the day.
The New York Board of Trade's dollar index was on pace for
its best month since November 2005 <.DXY>, also cheered by
perceptions U.S. interest rates are nearing a bottom. It last
traded at 72.874, up 0.5 percent on the day.
"That theme is definitely playing out in the market. The
Fed has two choices, either they cut 25 (basis points) and they
go to a neutral bias, or they don't cut but they keep an easing
bias," said Greg Anderson, senior currency strategist at ABN
Amro Bank in Chicago.
"I don't think that they can cut and keep an easing bias.
I don't think that the hawks will let them do that."
SOFTER EUROPEAN DATA
While markets are expecting a slightly hawkish tone in the
FOMC's statement accompanying the rate decision, poor economic
data from the euro zone raised doubts on the ECB's ability too
maintain its tough stance on inflation and interest rates.
Data on Tuesday showed French consumer confidence fell to
its lowest level since 1987, when the data series began.
Other reports indicated Spanish calendar-adjusted retail
sales fell a record 5.5 percent in March, and German inflation
in April undershot forecasts, with the annual rate slowing
sharply, piling pressure on the euro.
Against the yen, the single currency dropped to a session
low of 161.11 yen <EURJPY=>. It was last trading at 161.91 yen,
down 0.6 percent on the day. The euro also plumbed a four-week
low against the pound at 78.31 pence <EURGBP=>, but later
rallied to 79.07.
The pound was hurt by a warning from policy-maker David
Blanchflower that Britain faced a real risk of recession unless
the Bank of England took "aggressive" action.
But expectations the Fed's monetary easing cycle was almost
done helped push the U.S. stock market lower, causing the
dollar to fall against the yen. The dollar traded down 0.1
percent at 103.93 yen <JPY=>.
Analysts said the euro's slide could be arrested if euro
zone inflation data due on Wednesday does not show a moderation
as widely expected by the market. Expectations for a Fed pause
were a bit overstated, which could hurt the dollar, they said.
"They may well pause, but I don't think the next move in
interest rates is going to be up. There are still some
significant headwinds for the U.S. economy moving forward,"
said TD Securities' Osborne. "It's going to be very difficult
for the Fed to suggest that they are done easing interest rates
for the moment."
Data on Tuesday showed U.S. consumer confidence plunged to
a five-year low in April. Gross domestic product data on
Wednesday may show the economy shrank in the first quarter and
Friday's jobs report is expected to show payrolls fell 80,000
in April, according to a Reuters poll.
(Additional reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by
Leslie Adler)
