PRAGUE, Aug 6 (Reuters) - The Czech foreign trade posted a
20.4 billion crown ($1.13 billion) surplus in June, well above
analyst forecasts in a Reuters poll, data showed on Thursday.
It was the second largest ever monthly surplus after that
seen in March of this year.
The data showed a continued year-on-year decline in imports
and exports as the economy continued to suffer from a slump in
orders from Germany and other key west European markets.
But month-on-month, exports showed a small rise in
seasonally-adjusted terms.
**************************************************************
KEY POINTS:
(in bln CZK) June May June fcast
balance 20.43 11.71 14.0
(nominal y/y change in pct)
exports -15.1 -21.2 n/a
imports -19.3 -23.2 n/a
(For full table of trade data, click on........[])
- According to seasonally-adjusted preliminary data, exports
rose 1.6 percent in June from May, while imports slipped 1.5
percent month-on-month.
- In euro terms, exports fell 22.2 percent and imports plunged
26.1 percent year-on-year in June.
- Exports of cars and machinery dropped 13.8 percent
year-on-year. Imports in that sector fell 18.7 percent.
COMMENTARY:
RADOMIR JAC, CHIEF ANALYST, GENERALI PPF ASSET MANAGEMENT
"Preliminary data on industrial output indicated that both
exports and imports may show less drastic annual decline in June
compared to contractions seen in previous two months. Indeed,
June foreign trade statistics shows some improvement in this
regard.
"Therefore, also foreign trade offers some silver-lining:
pace of recession may decelerate in Czech economy in months to
come, which already seems to be the case of Western European
economies - and these two phenomenona are undoubtedly
interconnected.
"Furthermore, foreign trade surplus improved more than
expected in June, so the release is positive news for the Czech
crown. Nevertheless, the market is watching mainly the Czech
National Bank board meeting today: we expect interest rates to
be left on hold, which would also be good news for the Czech
crown later today."
DAVID MAREK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, PATRIA FINANCE
"We had upgraded our forecast after industrial output was
better than expected. While exports are improving because of
recovery in euro zone countries, imports are burdened by
declining domestic demand."
"Taking everything together, the trade balance is
improving... It could help improve the forecast for GDP in the
second quarter."
"It is another 'green shoot' for the Czech economy, so if we
can believe the situation is improving then the reasons for
monetary easing are declining."
MARKET RACTION:
The crown currency rose to 25.935 to the euro <EURCZK=>
after the data from 25.96 earlier on Thursday.
BACKGROUND:
- Market expectations before release []
- Slovak May trade figures []
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision.......[]
[] [] []
- For further details on June foreign trade and other past data,
Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical
Bureau's website:
http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-vzo
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data click on []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
(Reporting by Jason Hovet)
