PRAGUE, Oct 2 (Reuters) - The Czech Social Democrats (CSSD)
command most support ahead of an election in mid-2010 but their
lead over the main right-wing Civic Democrats (ODS) narrowed, a
survey showed on Friday.
The poll by the STEM agency showed backing for the Social
Democrats shrank to 27.4 percent from 29.0 percent at the end of
August, while support for the right-wing Civic Democrats fell to
23.2 percent from 24.1 percent.
The survey showed the leftist party could run a majority
cabinet with the far-left Communists.
It could also try to form a coalition with three small
parties although the newly-formed conservative party TOP09,
whose support rose to 9.2 percent from 6.8 percent, may not
agree to rule with the leftists.
They could also opt for a grand coalition with the Civic
Democrats.
The Czech Republic has had a non-partisan government headed
by Prime Minister Jan Fischer since the leftist parties toppled
a Civic Democrat-led coalition government in March.
A plan to hold an early election in October was abolished by
the Constitutional Court last month.
The Czech voting system is based on proportional
representation but divides the country into 14 voting districts.
This makes allocation of parliamentary seats difficult to
predict because small differences in support can lead to widely
different number of seats, especially for small parties.
Parties must win at least 5 percent of the national vote to
win seats in parliament.
DATE INSTITUTE ODS CSSD KSCM TOP09 KDU-CSL Greens
Oct 02/09 STEM 23.2 27.4 10.6 9.2 4.2 4.6
Sept 16/09 CVVM 29.5 29.5 15.5 13.0 5.5 4.5
Aug 31/09 STEM 24.1 29.0 11.2 6.8 5.7 2.7
Aug 19/09 CVVM 31.0 33.0 13.5 9.5 5.0 3.0
June 25/09 CVVM 35.0 30.0 16.0 2.0 6.5 5.5
June 19/09 STEM 28.3 28.2 12.8 - 6.2 2.7
May 19/09 STEM 23.7 32.4 10.9 - 5.3 5.9
May 19/09 CVVM 29.0 38.0 15.0 - 7.0 6.5
April 15/09 CVVM 28.0 37.5 15.5 - 7.0 7.0
April 15/09 STEM 27.5 35.1 10.5 - 4.4 5.6
March 18/09 CVVM 31.5 36.0 16.0 - 5.0 7.0
March 17/09 STEM 27.8 35.3 11.0 - 6.0 5.3
Feb 18/09 CVVM 29.0 38.5 15.5 - 7.0 6.0
Feb 13/09 STEM 25.5 35.2 11.8 - 6.8 5.1
Jan 28/09 CVVM 29.0 41.0 14.0 - 5.5 7.0
Jan 16/09 STEM 22.5 37.7 9.9 - 6.5 5.8
Dec 19/08 STEM 23.5 38.4 11.4 - 5.4 6.3
Dec 17/08 CVVM 27.0 44.5 14.0 - 6.0 6.0
Nov 21/08 CVVM 27.5 43.0 11.5 - 6.5 8.0
Nov 18/08 STEM 21.1 37.7 9.6 - 5.6 5.6
Oct 30/08 STEM 21.4 33.3 12.0 - 6.1 7.1
Oct 29/08 CVVM 26.5 40.0 14.5 - 7.0 8.5
Sept 17/08 CVVM 29.0 34.0 16.0 - 7.5 10.0
Sept 16/08 STEM 22.3 32.6 11.8 - 5.9 8.4
----------------------------------------------------------------
June 2006 election 35.4 32.3 12.8 - 7.2 6.3
NOTE. The STEM poll was conducted between September 18 and
September 25 among 1,256 eligible Czech voters.
The parties are:
- Civic Democratic Party (ODS) - right-of-centre,
liberal-conservative
- The Czech Social Democratic Party (CSSD) - leftist
- The Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSCM) - far left
- The new conservative party TOP 09
- Christian Democratic Union-Czechoslovak People's Party
(KDU-CSL) - centrist
- The Greens - environmentalists, centrist
Pollsters: The CVVM results are based on a model predicting
gains at the ballot box, excluding those not willing to vote and
undecided.
STEM results are direct voter preferences, and include
replies from all respondents including those not willing to
vote. Parties should thus win a larger than indicated share of
the vote at the election.
(Reporting by Mirka Krufova, editing by Jan Lopatka)
